Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities

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3 responses to “Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities”

1. October 28, 2021

   Joe

   So if SDSU is -1 and they have a win probability of of 78.3%, why would that not qualify as a play at -1?

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2. October 28, 2021

   Kyle Bennison

   Hey Joe, the “Elo Mismatch” column only calls out when a team favored by Elo is the underdog according to Vegas. In this game, that’s not the case since SDSU is the favorite by both Elo and Vegas. However, if you subscribe to our newsletter, we calculate the expected values for each game, and for the SDSU game, there would be a positive expected value on that bet since Elo favors SDSU much stronger than Vegas, making them undervalued this week.

   https://staturdays.substack.com/p/ot-rules

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3. October 28, 2021

   Joe

   Thanks. I will subscribe. Hope you guys are right about MSU.

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