Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities
Published by Kyle Bennison
Kyle Bennison is a data scientist and writer for Staturdays. He is a college football, soccer, F1, and Indycar fan working to make analytics more accessible to the common fan. You can follow him on Twitter @kylebeni012. View all posts by Kyle Bennison
3 thoughts on “Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities”
So if SDSU is -1 and they have a win probability of of 78.3%, why would that not qualify as a play at -1?
Hey Joe, the “Elo Mismatch” column only calls out when a team favored by Elo is the underdog according to Vegas. In this game, that’s not the case since SDSU is the favorite by both Elo and Vegas. However, if you subscribe to our newsletter, we calculate the expected values for each game, and for the SDSU game, there would be a positive expected value on that bet since Elo favors SDSU much stronger than Vegas, making them undervalued this week.
Thanks. I will subscribe. Hope you guys are right about MSU.