Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities

ACC

Big Ten

Big-12

Pac-12

SEC

American

Conference USA

Independents

MAC

Mountain West

Sun Belt

3 thoughts on “Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities

  1. Hey Joe, the “Elo Mismatch” column only calls out when a team favored by Elo is the underdog according to Vegas. In this game, that’s not the case since SDSU is the favorite by both Elo and Vegas. However, if you subscribe to our newsletter, we calculate the expected values for each game, and for the SDSU game, there would be a positive expected value on that bet since Elo favors SDSU much stronger than Vegas, making them undervalued this week.

    https://staturdays.substack.com/p/ot-rules

    Like

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