In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say … Continue reading Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
Win probabilities for remaining bowl games, including the CFB Playoff Semifinal matchups and the rest of the New Year's Six bowl games. Home-field advantage adjustments were removed for these games. Elo win probabilities for all the upcoming bowl games.
It's conference championship week. The most closely contested of the conference championship games is projected to be the Notre Dame-Clemson game for the ACC title. Let's check out who Elo likes in all this week's matchups. Please note that Washington was replaced with Oregon for the Pac-12 championship. USC's win probability for that game is … Continue reading Week 16 Win Probabilities
We're in the final stretch. The regular season winds down this weekend and then it's conference championship time!
This week we’re talking about bye weeks. We could all use a break around this time of year, and even more so in 2020. They help you get refreshed, get your mind right, and get back out there better than before. Or do they? In the office, taking a break can mean playing catch-up later. … Continue reading CFB Mythbusters: Do bye weeks help or hurt your team?
We've got a long weekend of College Football ahead of us. Here's how Elo feels about these matchups as we get deeper into this crazy 2020 season.
Get ready for the weekend and all the biggest matchups by reviewing Elo's win probabilities for Week 12 of the college football season. Week 12 college football Elo win probabilities
Below are the win probabilities for Week 10. We've got a full slate of games for all Power-5 conferences as the Pac-12 returns, and we have several discrepancies between Elo and Vegas, particularly in the Pac-12 as things are just starting up. And Elo continues to like Navy for some reason. Hard pass on that … Continue reading Week 10 Win Probabilities
We've updated our Elo Ratings since the last time we wrote about them. Specifically, we've recalculated the expected wins and win probabilities of all the teams based on their updated schedules. This resulted in lower overall win totals given the shortened season, but some teams have a higher win probability for the season as a … Continue reading Updated Preseason College Football Rankings
Get a high-level overview of what Elo Ratings are as @kylebennison explains what goes into this new college football stat. You can read the full article that explains the details here. https://videopress.com/v/uIXKePGx?preloadContent=metadata Kyle explains the concept behind College Football Elo Ratings.