Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go

In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say … Continue reading Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go

Week 16 Win Probabilities

It's conference championship week. The most closely contested of the conference championship games is projected to be the Notre Dame-Clemson game for the ACC title. Let's check out who Elo likes in all this week's matchups. Please note that Washington was replaced with Oregon for the Pac-12 championship. USC's win probability for that game is … Continue reading Week 16 Win Probabilities

CFB Mythbusters: Do bye weeks help or hurt your team?

This week we’re talking about bye weeks. We could all use a break around this time of year, and even more so in 2020. They help you get refreshed, get your mind right, and get back out there better than before. Or do they? In the office, taking a break can mean playing catch-up later. … Continue reading CFB Mythbusters: Do bye weeks help or hurt your team?

Updated Preseason College Football Rankings

We've updated our Elo Ratings since the last time we wrote about them. Specifically, we've recalculated the expected wins and win probabilities of all the teams based on their updated schedules. This resulted in lower overall win totals given the shortened season, but some teams have a higher win probability for the season as a … Continue reading Updated Preseason College Football Rankings