Tag: College Football

2021 Update: Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go

After the 2020 season, I wrote an article about third down conversion rates after adjusting for how many yards the team had to earn on that third down. The reason for this was because too often on broadcasts a team's third down conversion rate is shown without any regard for how many yards the team … Continue reading 2021 Update: Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go →

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StatRdays: The Easiest Model You’ll Ever Make

This year, we've been participating in the CollegeFootballData.com prediction contest, where each week you predict the actual spread of the game. You're judged on a variety of factors like your outright picks, picks against the spread, absolute and mean-squared error. Two areas that we are performing very well (1st and 2nd, respectively), are MSE and … Continue reading StatRdays: The Easiest Model You’ll Ever Make →

Tuning an In-Game Win Probability Model Using xgboost

A few weeks ago, we started tweeting out the post-game win probability plots for every FBS college football game. They were a nice addition to our Saturdays, but there were some issues. Namely, we'd get a lot of plots like this: Now, to be fair, this was a back-and-forth game that ended 70-56 in favor … Continue reading Tuning an In-Game Win Probability Model Using xgboost →