StatRdays: The Easiest Model You’ll Ever Make

This year, we've been participating in the CollegeFootballData.com prediction contest, where each week you predict the actual spread of the game. You're judged on a variety of factors like your outright picks, picks against the spread, absolute and mean-squared error. Two areas that we are performing very well (1st and 2nd, respectively), are MSE and … Continue reading StatRdays: The Easiest Model You’ll Ever Make

Tuning an In-Game Win Probability Model Using xgboost

A few weeks ago, we started tweeting out the post-game win probability plots for every FBS college football game. They were a nice addition to our Saturdays, but there were some issues. Namely, we'd get a lot of plots like this: Now, to be fair, this was a back-and-forth game that ended 70-56 in favor … Continue reading Tuning an In-Game Win Probability Model Using xgboost