Recently I listened to an episode of Freakonomics Radio where they talked about specialization in the NFL. Specifically, they were talking about how the long snapper position has become something that NFL teams specifically draft for and pay upwards of $1 million a year to have on their 53-man roster. This got me wondering: what … Continue reading Why Don’t NFL Teams Pay NBA Players to Block Kicks?
After the 2020 season, I wrote an article about third down conversion rates after adjusting for how many yards the team had to earn on that third down. The reason for this was because too often on broadcasts a team's third down conversion rate is shown without any regard for how many yards the team … Continue reading 2021 Update: Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
This year, we've been participating in the CollegeFootballData.com prediction contest, where each week you predict the actual spread of the game. You're judged on a variety of factors like your outright picks, picks against the spread, absolute and mean-squared error. Two areas that we are performing very well (1st and 2nd, respectively), are MSE and … Continue reading StatRdays: The Easiest Model You’ll Ever Make
A few weeks ago, we started tweeting out the post-game win probability plots for every FBS college football game. They were a nice addition to our Saturdays, but there were some issues. Namely, we'd get a lot of plots like this: Now, to be fair, this was a back-and-forth game that ended 70-56 in favor … Continue reading Tuning an In-Game Win Probability Model Using xgboost
ACCBig TenBig-12Pac-12SEC AmericanConference USAIndependentsMACMountain WestSun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
ACCBig TenBig-12Pac-12SEC AmericanConference USAIndependentsMACMountain WestSun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
It was another week of great night games, as LSU took Alabama to the brink of defeat, and Louisville was about five yards and some better cleats away from beating Clemson. Here are the latest rankings. Texas A&M moved into the Top 5 with a win over Auburn, while Michigan State slid after a loss … Continue reading Week 11 Elo Rankings
ACCBig TenBig-12Pac-12SEC AmericanConference USAIndependentsMACMountain WestSun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
It was spooky season for a few top teams like Florida, Michigan, and Pitt this weekend, who all went home with losses. Georgia continues to make up ground on Alabama, although both made it into the Top 4 of the first College Football Playoff rankings last night. Just missing out were Cincinnati and Ohio State, … Continue reading Week 10 Elo Rankings
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. One glaring aspect of Elo is its stark contrast to the traditional AP Poll rankings. Just look at the two top 25’s: the first from the AP Poll and the second based on … Continue reading How Accurate is the AP Poll?
Staturdays 