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Week 10 Elo Win Probabilities
ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
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Week 10 Elo Rankings
It was spooky season for a few top teams like Florida, Michigan, and Pitt this weekend, who all went home with losses. Georgia continues to make up ground on Alabama, although both made it into the Top 4 of the first College Football Playoff rankings last night. Just missing out were Cincinnati and Ohio State,
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How Accurate is the AP Poll?
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. One glaring aspect of Elo is its stark contrast to the traditional AP Poll rankings. Just look at the two top 25’s: the first from the AP Poll and the second based on
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Week 9 Elo Rankings
Virginia Tech and Penn State had two of the largest losses in Elo points after disappointing losses to Syracuse and Illinois, the latter of the two going to a record nine overtimes. At one point, the two went back and forth 10 times without converting a single two-point conversion. There was about a 4 in
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Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities
ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
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In-Depth: Predicting Spreads
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Last week we talked at length about Moneylines. This week we’re talking spreads, a topic I tend to avoid. Reason: it’s a lot easier to predict which team is going to win, especially in college football—as
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Week 8 Elo Win Probabilities
ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
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Week 8 Elo Rankings
Another tumultuous week of college football has shaken up the rankings once again. The top 4 stayed put, but some noticeable slides were Texas from 19th to 27th, Penn State being overtaken (who were on a bye week), and four-spot drops each from Iowa and Florida. Teams making upward moves included Michigan State, Oklahoma State,
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Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Let’s talk moneylines and expected value, something that’s essential to understand if you want to stand a chance at profiting off sports betting in the long run. Before I go into too much
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Week 7 Elo Rankings
After a wild Week 6 that saw the #1 team drop to unranked Texas A&M, you’d expect a massive shakeup in the Elo ratings. Or at least you’d think. In reality, things haven’t moved all that much. While A&M were unranked in the AP Poll, Elo ratings actually put them at 13th last week. This
Staturdays 