General

In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say a team has a 25% third down conversion rate, but the play they’re about to run on the field is a third and 1. Does that play really have a 25% chance of getting them one yard (or more)? I don’t think so, but I have nothing else to go by. Taking the actual play context into consideration, just the distance to go, really, is tremendously easy but not often done by analysts.