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This year, we’ve been participating in the CollegeFootballData.com prediction contest, where each week you predict the actual spread of the game. You’re judged on a variety of factors like your outright picks, picks against the spread, absolute and mean-squared error. Two areas that we are performing very well (1st and 2nd, respectively), are MSE and … Continue reading StatRdays: The Easiest Model You’ll Ever Make
Get the data you need to know about your team
There’s a lot more to the game than what you saw on TV. Bad losses weren’t so bad, and that big win might’ve been a bit lucky. Either way, we bring you the stats to ground your gut-feeling in reality. We help you be a smarter college football fan so you can be the ultimate couch coach.
College Football Elo Ratings
Back up your gut with stats. That last loss was painful, but was it predictable? Elo is our way of rating each team based on their wins and losses.
Each Power-5 team starts at 1500, and from there they gain and lose points based on their results. Win a game you are supposed to: your rating may go up a few points. But win a game you were a massive underdog in? You’ll shoot up the rankings.
Adjustments are made for home-field advantage, conference, and turnover in the offseason.
This allows us to give win-probabilities for each matchup based on each team’s Elo rating.
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but simply having a lot of passing yards and rushing yards does not win you football games. That’s why we look a bit deeper at the stats that make a difference.
Here are some of the ones we use most often:
New to Staturdays? Here are some good places to start.
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Weekly Stats Delivered to Your Inbox
We send a weekly newsletter covering some topics more in-depth, and share our win-probabilities for the upcoming week of games to help you inform any bets you may want to make.
Go Deep: Listen To Our Podcast
Looking for more analysis and insight? The best place to go is our weekly podcast. It’s available pretty much everywhere, but you can check out the latest episode right here. Make sure to subscribe to get notifications when a new episode is out. (Note: Podcast is on pause for the 2021 season. Join us on Twitter this season for live chats on gamedays.)