After the 2020 season, I wrote an article about third down conversion rates after adjusting for how many yards the team had to earn on that third down. The reason for this was because too often on broadcasts a team's third down conversion rate is shown without any regard for how many yards the team … Continue reading 2021 Update: Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
Using our Elo ratings, which serve as a measure of each team’s strength and update after each game, we simulated the remaining college football season 10,000 times. This was done for every matchup for every team across the sport, and we've separated out the result for each Power 5 conference below. Using our Elo ratings, we … Continue reading Season Simulations for all Power 5 Conference Teams: 9/7/2021
Using our Elo ratings, which serve as a measure of each team’s strength and update after each game, we simulated the upcoming college football season 10,000 times. This was done for every matchup for every team across the sport, and we've separated out the result for each Power 5 conference below. Using our Elo ratings, we … Continue reading Season Simulations for all Power 5 Conference Teams
The 2021 Big Ten season kicks off this Saturday with Nebraska vs. Illinois at 1 p.m. Eastern. This will be the first Big 10 game of the year, and the first game in over a year that will resemble what we are used to imagining Big 10 football to look like as the Big 10 … Continue reading Big 10 Conference Preview: Simulating the Season
In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say … Continue reading Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
Penn State is now 0-5 and hasn't really been in what's felt like a close game since the opener at Indiana. Luckily, I found a way to (kind of) distract myself, charting each and every pass of this weekend's game using Jared Lee's fantastic Shiny app and code. Please check out his account and give … Continue reading Takeaways From Charting the Penn State–Iowa Game
Big Ten and Pac-12 Postpone 2020 CFB, Elo Ratings, and Notre Dame to the ACC The Staturdays podcast is back on an eventful day for college football as the B10 and PAC-12 cancel their fall sports seasons. We did our first ever live podcast show on Facebook Live, so if you're interested in watching us … Continue reading Podcast: B10 and PAC-12 Postpone, and the Debut of CFB Elo Ratings
The ACC announced their plans for an eleven game season this week that includes ten conference games, one non-conference game, and Notre Dame as a member for 2020 only. There will also be no ACC divisions for this season. All of the conference's decisions are of course subject to change as the coronavirus pandemic unfolds, … Continue reading Did Notre Dame’s Schedule Just Get Easier?