In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say a team has a 25% third down conversion rate, but the play they’re about to run on the field is a third and 1. Does that play really have a 25% chance of getting them one yard (or more)? I don’t think so, but I have nothing else to go by. Taking the actual play context into consideration, just the distance to go, really, is tremendously easy but not often done by analysts.
(more…)College Football
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Bowl Game Win Probabilities
Win probabilities for remaining bowl games, including the CFB Playoff Semifinal matchups and the rest of the New Year’s Six bowl games. Home-field advantage adjustments were removed for these games.
Elo win probabilities for all the upcoming bowl games. -
Week 16 Win Probabilities
It’s conference championship week. The most closely contested of the conference championship games is projected to be the Notre Dame-Clemson game for the ACC title. Let’s check out who Elo likes in all this week’s matchups. Please note that Washington was replaced with Oregon for the Pac-12 championship. USC’s win probability for that game is actually 68.2% now, a tougher game than their original opponent.
Staturdays 