Using our Elo ratings, which serve as a measure of each team’s strength and update after each game, we simulated the upcoming college football season 10,000 times. This was done for every matchup for every team across the sport, and we’ve separated out the result for each Power 5 conference below. Using our Elo ratings, we simulate the outcome of each game over and over as we progress through 10,000 hypothetical seasons. At the end of these 10,000 seasons, we take some averages and calculate some stats to see how many games each team is likely to win on average, their probability of going undefeated, and more.
(more…)Drew
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Big 10 Conference Preview: Simulating the Season
The 2021 Big Ten season kicks off this Saturday with Nebraska vs. Illinois at 1 p.m. Eastern. This will be the first Big 10 game of the year, and the first game in over a year that will resemble what we are used to imagining Big 10 football to look like as the Big 10 did not allow fans last season.
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Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say a team has a 25% third down conversion rate, but the play they’re about to run on the field is a third and 1. Does that play really have a 25% chance of getting them one yard (or more)? I don’t think so, but I have nothing else to go by. Taking the actual play context into consideration, just the distance to go, really, is tremendously easy but not often done by analysts.
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Staturdays 