After the 2020 season, I wrote an article about third down conversion rates after adjusting for how many yards the team had to earn on that third down. The reason for this was because too often on broadcasts a team’s third down conversion rate is shown without any regard for how many yards the team has to earn on their current third down attempt. Fans, teams, and commentators know that a 3rd and 2 is more likely to be converted than a 3rd and 9, but they do not often differentiate between these two situations when talking about third down conversion rate. Luckily, that is what Staturdays is here for.
Third Down Conversion Rate
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2021 Update: Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
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Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go
In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say a team has a 25% third down conversion rate, but the play they’re about to run on the field is a third and 1. Does that play really have a 25% chance of getting them one yard (or more)? I don’t think so, but I have nothing else to go by. Taking the actual play context into consideration, just the distance to go, really, is tremendously easy but not often done by analysts.
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