Staturdays

Sean Clifford

  • Saved by the Bell

    Last time we spoke there was an equal feeling of nervousness and excitement for the next three games. This anxiety existed because we knew the performance of Penn State in October shaped what would become of the entire season, the recruiting outlook for the next few seasons, and for the emergence of what could be the next great Penn State core under James Franklin. We went through the 4 different possible outcomes of a three-game stretch and saw the massive range of emotions that Penn State would be feeling whether they won-out, lost-out, or had something happen in-between.

    Two weeks later Penn State has defeated both of their opponents and improved to a 7-0 record. Michigan State is the only remaining foe on their schedule before a bye-week and the Nittany Lions currently sit #6 in nation. Things are good… really good. This young team could have easily lost one or both of these games but pulled through – not letting their youth be an excuse for mediocrity. There are certainly challenges ahead for PSU Football, possibly even greater than Iowa and Michigan, but there is something to be said about the confidence that gets instilled into a team with two wins against ranked opponents. Aside from LSU, Penn State is the only other team to accomplish such a feat this season so far. From a national perspective, Penn State is a real contender and a serious threat for the playoffs. From a more local perspective, things aren’t as positive; fair or not – there are things to be cleaned up immediately.

    Last week I planned to write about the officiating in the Iowa game, and how there needs to be accountability in that part of the game, but decided not to because it almost felt like it would be a detractor to how important that road win was to Penn State. I always struggle with pointing out criticism as a fan after a win because I feel that it makes me seem narcissistic. I mean, who am I to point out flaws – anything I’m seeing the team must also be seeing. This week though, I am going to step out of character for a little bit because I really am perplexed by the state of this Nittany Lion offense.

    I was at the game this week and the second half felt like a movie that I have watched again and again. Up by 14-21 points, Penn State could never seem to put the game away or even stay on the field. Through 5 possessions, after the 3rd touchdown in the second quarter, Penn State ran 16 plays total for what felt like less than five seconds of game play. Finally, Penn State scored again to bring the score to 28-14 only to immediately let Michigan back in the game with another touchdown of their own. From then, when we really should have tried to put the game on ice, Ricky Slade inexplicably comes into the game as RB and the Nittany Lions went three and out for the 6th time.

    Penn State won the game. They are 7-0. BUT …. I have to point out a few things here:

    • These offensive lulls need to end. Or at least be contained. I mean, Penn State doesn’t need to score every single drive, but they have to find a way to stay on the field. After going up 21-0, the next 5 drives went for
      • 3 plays / 4 yards / 1:02
      • 3 plays / 9 yards / 0:39
      • 4 plays / 12 yards / 2:11
      • 3 plays / 2 yards / 1:00
      • 3 plays / 3 yards / 1:27
    • For those who aren’t math folks that adds up to 16 plays / 30 yards / 6:19 / 0 points. Conversely, Michigan’s 5 drives in that timeframe: 33 plays / 227 yards / 14:46 / 14 points. For essentially an entire half of a game, Penn State stopped playing football. Sure, they didn’t give up the lead but they never let their defense get off of the field! It’s OK to not score every drive but you can’t just rely on your defense to play shut-out football against 4- and 5-star athletes for an entire game.
    • Ice the damn game! Penn State is up 28-21 with 8 minutes to go in the game and Ricky Slade comes in as the running back. There was an audible groan from the white-out crowd when they saw it wasn’t Noah Cain beside Clifford. Cain has proven to be, and coaches have said verbatim, that he is the closer – yet Ricky Slade was in the backfield this drive. And even more perplexing, the first play call was a slow developing pass to Slade five yards behind the line of scrimmage which dropped him for a loss of 4. This put an immense amount of pressure on Clifford to make a play on second down and a missed block (by of course Ricky Slade) drops him for a sack and a loss of another 5 yards. Now Penn State is faced with a 3rd and 19 that is impossible to convert. Less than 2 minutes later, Michigan has the ball again with 7 minutes to go. Michigan was a caught pass in the endzone away from tying the game. This CANNOT be the strategy anymore. We have seen this so many times and too many games have been lost in the 4th quarter because of the inability to run the clock. Noah Cain is the one-cut decisive back who will run the ball forward and get 3-7 yards almost every time. Cain is a luxury that PSU has but for some reason didn’t use last Saturday. That has to change.
    • Take some pressure off of Sean Clifford and his three targets. Not to harp on that one drive but I’m sorry, how can a slow developing pass to Ricky Slade 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage be the play call? You need yards, first downs, and plays that run the clock when you are up late in the game. So many first and second down plays went for short yardage and made third down that much harder for Sean Clifford. There needs to be a little more belief that PSU’s RBs can beat the opposing defense. The four RBs got 13 carries total and that is including Noah Cain’s two at the very end of the game. This combined with the fact that the WR-X position (Daniel George and Justin Shorter) had zero receptions or targets this game. Dotson had one catch … Freiermuth three. More or less there is an entire 11th position on the field that is used as nothing but a decoy this entire season and that MUST change. 52% of the receptions, 60% of the yards, and 79% of the TD catches have been by Hamler, Dotson, or Freiermuth. There will be a time when we are going to need someone else to make a catch or run the ball. This coaching staff needs to find confidence in more pass catchers and find a way to take some pressure off of the offensive stars.

    Penn State won the game. They are 7-0. And here is the best news – if my dumbass is seeing these issues so is the coaching staff. I’m confident that Penn State can clean up some of these offensive woes before heading into MSU to close out this tough October stretch. The problem though is that even after the bye-week the schedule doesn’t get much easier; Minnesota will likely be undefeated, Indiana’s looked the best they’ve looked in a long time, and of course that team from Columbus follows right after. The team and fans alike can only focus on the game ahead and that will be a tough matchup against The Spartans. If Penn State can find more receivers, play smarter with a lead, and allow their RBs to shine – I can confidently say that they will win that game and improve to 8-0 on the year. We Are.

    7-0

  • Should Noah Cain be RB1?

    In the past few games, Noah Cain has proven himself to be a reliable and consistent weapon on offense. Penn State has famously been using a running back by committee philosophy for the first half of the season, and so far, it’s worked out fairly well. However, the backs are starting to separate themselves into tiers, and a tipping point is coming up.

    Here’s the stats for the committee (including Sean Clifford, who, through 6 games, is Penn State’s leading rusher with 59 attempts.

    Performance from Penn State’s top-5 rushers so far this year, through 6 games.

    As you can see, Noah Cain is starting to set himself apart in terms of his attempts and his TDs. Now, attempts are James Franklin’s decision, so he hasn’t influenced that stat line (but he has made the most of it by being consistent).

    TDs are another one where he is obviously putting the ball in the endzone, but he is also being given the opportunity more than other backs. He hasn’t been nearly as explosive as Journey Brown or Devyn Ford. His TD runs have been for 3, 9, 2, 13, 2, and 5 yards. So, I’d give more credit to our offensive line for carving a hole, rather than him making some explosive play to punch it in himself.

    In terms of Yards per Attempt, as mentioned, Brown and Ford are the leaders here. Each of them are hovering around 7 yards per attempt. Brown has also been a threat in the pass game, albeit on a minuscule 7 receptions. That being said, Cain’s YPA are nothing to (I can never remember how this saying goes) sniff? — at. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, or in other words, half a first down per attempt. I’ll take that any day, considering only 16 teams in D-I average more than that. As in whole teams, that get to switch out their backs and put in fresh ones.

    So now that we have an idea of where Noah Cain stands in the hierarchy of RBs (in my opinion – pretty even with the top 3), the question is what to do about the snap count for each guy.

    My dad, and noted Staturdays commenter, brought up an interesting point about the transfer portal, and if Franklin is scared of its implications in the first full season of use. Given that Penn State lost a lot of prolific talent to other programs in the offseason (mainly the drop-plagued wide receivers and defensive backs), that fear might still be lingering in his mind.

    His concern was that Franklin may be spreading the ball out more than the data suggests in order to keep all four guys content with their decision to attend The Pennsylvania State University. This could be the case, but there are two edges to that sword.

    1. Play all four backs evenly, and they all get playing time and are happy, but you may not get the optimal production in the run game.
    2. Play all four backs evenly, and the true “star” RB that deserves more snaps than he’s being given enters the transfer portal anyway, looking for a program that will give him his fair share of the workload (Noah Cain currently carries 24% of it at Penn State. Not that these two players are comparable yet, but for reference Jonathon Taylor receives 47% of the workload in terms of attempts.)

    Either way, it looks like the committee is a risky option once you have found your guy. Now, in the first half of the season, Franklin didn’t have much of a choice. These guys are young and Franklin needs to play them to figure out what they’ve got in a real game (Brown is a junior, Slade is a sophomore, and Ford and Cain are Freshmen).

    Unfortunately for us (and Franklin), Penn State’s data doesn’t really hint at whether a committee or a star RB is best. In the games where we have employed the most committee-style run-game, they have been blowouts against bad defenses. Everybody and their little brother got into the game, and regardless of who was toting the ball, they were carrying it well. So the data is skewed.

    Yards per Attempt for the team in games where Penn State RBs shared the ball, vs. when they used a star RB (30% or more of the workload).

    When a Penn State rusher got over 30% of the workload (which has only happened in 3 of 6 games), we actually rushed worse than when the ball was spread out, by more than 1 yard per attempt difference. That being said, the games where we rushed by committee were against Idaho, Maryland, and Purdue, all of which we beat up on.

    So for now, I am arguing for Franklin to continue what he’s doing and spread the ball out. The past few weeks have given all of us a favorable impression of Noah Cain, and rightly so, but let’s not ignore the impact that having four (or five, shoutout Sean Clifford) versatile running threats can have on the game.

  • The (Wild) Dog Days are just beginning

    The time is now.

    Five games into the season Penn State is sitting comfortably ranked #10 with an undefeated record and potentially the best defense in the Big Ten. There is undeniably enough talent in the locker room to win a championship and the players and coaches are hungry for one. Nittany Lion fans are just as hungry if not more. Every little detail over the past five games has been observed under a microscope and scrutinized by the anticipatory fan base because they know, just as well as the team knows, what Penn State is able to accomplish this season.

    Penn State has had a dominant start to their season regardless of what you read on the internet. Above all else, through the first five games, Penn State has outscored opponents 235-37. They haven’t allowed two touchdowns to be scored by an opponent yet this season. Penn State is averaging (though be it a skewed) 47 points per game and it isn’t even wrong to feel more comfortable with the defense on the field. Sure, there are things to clean up after every game — that’s a given with every team ever… but this 2019 Penn State team is special.

    The next three games can tell a wide array of stories. There is a road trip to Iowa, a night-time white-out battle versus Michigan, and a visit to Michigan State. Penn State will be favored in all 3 of these games. They can realistically go 3-0 and surge to 8-0 on the season with Rutgers, Minnesota, and Indiana on the horizon. They can also realistically drop to 5-3 if they don’t step up to the competition and they lose all confidence in themselves for the remainder of the season.

    The next three games are against similar opponents, who match up to Penn State fairly well and forecast some close, fun contests ahead. Like Penn State – Iowa, Michigan, and MSU all have elite level defenses but with offenses that can be hit or miss. The competition has taken a major step up; no more are the days of Iowa and Maryland. To win these games, PSU will have to have excellent QB play, solid blocking, and for their defense to play as they have this whole season.

    To prepare for the upcoming Saturdays, and to anticipate emotions, here is how I think we will be feeling Oct 27th with every scenario:

    • 3-0: Penn State is a national championship contending team. They are top six in every poll and are going to be heavy favorites for three of the next four games. Going 11-1 is nearly guaranteed, and if they can pull off a win in Columbus, this young Penn State team will finish the regular season 12-0. At this point fans will be scoreboard watching OSU games and hoping that Michigan or Wisconsin can get a win against the Buckeyes so Penn State can be Big Ten East Champions again.
    • 2-1: Dropped a tough game during this stretch. Can still be a national championship contender if PSU can go to Columbus and pull off a win. Likely sitting top 12 in the nation right now. 10-2 is the safe regular season record prediction which would be really solid for such a young team. Even with no Big Ten Championship, Penn State is sitting in a great position to make a New Years Six bowl game. Exceeding most expectations for the year.
    • 1-2: Tough stretch of games, lost at least one road game against a tough opponent. More or less dropped from Big Ten Title contention and now the focus has shifted to winning out and hoping to steal a game from the Buckeyes. Likely ranked in the top 22. 9-3 is a safe season record but could easily go 8-4 if they drop both remaining road games to Minnesota and Ohio State. Winning the games that they are favored in will put them in good position to go to an upper level bowl (like the Citrus Bowl) and with some help from higher ranked teams, maybe a New Years Six. It’s scoreboard watching season.
    • 0-3: Yikes. Brutal three games have knocked Penn State out of the rankings for the first time since 2016. Penn State’s offense couldn’t find a way to score versus tough defenses and the season has been basically wasted. Best case scenario Penn State goes 8-4 but at this point the fan base is so defeated that they feel anything can happen. Will we win another game ever? James Franklin hot-seat/USC talks are up in the air, and fans are upset when AD Sandy Barbour announces that she will not be firing him. Let’s just go somewhere warm this December for the bowl game.

    The difference in optics and the overall excitement for this program for the 2019 season hangs in the balance of the next three games. The scary part is that Penn State has the talent and the inexperience to win-out or lose-out. These games will be a must watch and fans should celebrate every single win we can get because each one makes a humungous difference for this program not only this year, but in terms of momentum and recruiting for years down the line.

    There is a real shot at championship level football in Penn State’s horizon and everybody knows it. The only thing we can do is wear white, head to the games, and watch the Nittany Lions tear it up. We are.

    5-0.