PSU holds off against Michigan in the White Out but struggles managing the clock, Tua is out and his Heisman hopes are getting bleak, Penn State is one of two teams to have two ranked wins, and could play FIVE ranked teams by the end of the season, Franklin is a confirmed tailgater, we give our thoughts on the Penn State Football HBO special, debate whether we’d be satisfied with a Rose Bowl bid this season, and pick a bunch of Top 25 matchups in Week 9 including Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, Notre Dame vs. Michigan, Auburn vs. LSU, and of course Penn State vs. Michigan State.
Last time we
spoke there was an equal feeling of nervousness and excitement for the next
three games. This anxiety existed because we knew the performance of Penn State
in October shaped what would become of the entire season, the recruiting
outlook for the next few seasons, and for the emergence of what could be the next
great Penn State core under James Franklin. We went through the 4 different
possible outcomes of a three-game stretch and saw the massive range of emotions
that Penn State would be feeling whether they won-out, lost-out, or had something
happen in-between.
Two weeks later Penn State has defeated both of their opponents and improved to a 7-0 record. Michigan State is the only remaining foe on their schedule before a bye-week and the Nittany Lions currently sit #6 in nation. Things are good… really good. This young team could have easily lost one or both of these games but pulled through – not letting their youth be an excuse for mediocrity. There are certainly challenges ahead for PSU Football, possibly even greater than Iowa and Michigan, but there is something to be said about the confidence that gets instilled into a team with two wins against ranked opponents. Aside from LSU, Penn State is the only other team to accomplish such a feat this season so far. From a national perspective, Penn State is a real contender and a serious threat for the playoffs. From a more local perspective, things aren’t as positive; fair or not – there are things to be cleaned up immediately.
Last week I
planned to write about the officiating in the Iowa game, and how there needs to
be accountability in that part of the game, but decided not to because it
almost felt like it would be a detractor to how important that road win was to
Penn State. I always struggle with pointing out criticism as a fan after a win because
I feel that it makes me seem narcissistic. I mean, who am I to point out flaws –
anything I’m seeing the team must also be seeing. This week though, I am going
to step out of character for a little bit because I really am perplexed by the
state of this Nittany Lion offense.
I was at the game this week and the second half felt like a movie that I have watched again and again. Up by 14-21 points, Penn State could never seem to put the game away or even stay on the field. Through 5 possessions, after the 3rd touchdown in the second quarter, Penn State ran 16 plays total for what felt like less than five seconds of game play. Finally, Penn State scored again to bring the score to 28-14 only to immediately let Michigan back in the game with another touchdown of their own. From then, when we really should have tried to put the game on ice, Ricky Slade inexplicably comes into the game as RB and the Nittany Lions went three and out for the 6th time.
Penn State
won the game. They are 7-0. BUT …. I have to point out a few things here:
These offensive lulls need to end. Or at least be contained. I mean, Penn State doesn’t need to score every single drive, but they have to find a way to stay on the field. After going up 21-0, the next 5 drives went for
3 plays / 4 yards / 1:02
3 plays / 9 yards / 0:39
4 plays / 12 yards / 2:11
3 plays / 2 yards / 1:00
3 plays / 3 yards / 1:27
For those who aren’t math folks that adds up to 16 plays / 30 yards / 6:19 / 0 points. Conversely, Michigan’s 5 drives in that timeframe: 33 plays / 227 yards / 14:46 / 14 points. For essentially an entire half of a game, Penn State stopped playing football. Sure, they didn’t give up the lead but they never let their defense get off of the field! It’s OK to not score every drive but you can’t just rely on your defense to play shut-out football against 4- and 5-star athletes for an entire game.
Ice the damn game! Penn State is up 28-21 with 8 minutes to go in the game and Ricky Slade comes in as the running back. There was an audible groan from the white-out crowd when they saw it wasn’t Noah Cain beside Clifford. Cain has proven to be, and coaches have said verbatim, that he is the closer – yet Ricky Slade was in the backfield this drive. And even more perplexing, the first play call was a slow developing pass to Slade five yards behind the line of scrimmage which dropped him for a loss of 4. This put an immense amount of pressure on Clifford to make a play on second down and a missed block (by of course Ricky Slade) drops him for a sack and a loss of another 5 yards. Now Penn State is faced with a 3rd and 19 that is impossible to convert. Less than 2 minutes later, Michigan has the ball again with 7 minutes to go. Michigan was a caught pass in the endzone away from tying the game. This CANNOT be the strategy anymore. We have seen this so many times and too many games have been lost in the 4th quarter because of the inability to run the clock. Noah Cain is the one-cut decisive back who will run the ball forward and get 3-7 yards almost every time. Cain is a luxury that PSU has but for some reason didn’t use last Saturday. That has to change.
Take some pressure off of Sean Clifford and his three targets. Not to harp on that one drive but I’m sorry, how can a slow developing pass to Ricky Slade 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage be the play call? You need yards, first downs, and plays that run the clock when you are up late in the game. So many first and second down plays went for short yardage and made third down that much harder for Sean Clifford. There needs to be a little more belief that PSU’s RBs can beat the opposing defense. The four RBs got 13 carries total and that is including Noah Cain’s two at the very end of the game. This combined with the fact that the WR-X position (Daniel George and Justin Shorter) had zero receptions or targets this game. Dotson had one catch … Freiermuth three. More or less there is an entire 11th position on the field that is used as nothing but a decoy this entire season and that MUST change. 52% of the receptions, 60% of the yards, and 79% of the TD catches have been by Hamler, Dotson, or Freiermuth. There will be a time when we are going to need someone else to make a catch or run the ball. This coaching staff needs to find confidence in more pass catchers and find a way to take some pressure off of the offensive stars.
Penn State
won the game. They are 7-0. And here is the best news – if my dumbass is seeing
these issues so is the coaching staff. I’m confident that Penn State can clean
up some of these offensive woes before heading into MSU to close out this tough
October stretch. The problem though is that even after the bye-week the schedule
doesn’t get much easier; Minnesota will likely be undefeated, Indiana’s looked
the best they’ve looked in a long time, and of course that team from Columbus
follows right after. The team and fans alike can only focus on the game ahead
and that will be a tough matchup against The Spartans. If Penn State can find
more receivers, play smarter with a lead, and allow their RBs to shine – I can
confidently say that they will win that game and improve to 8-0 on the year. We
Are.
In the past few games, Noah Cain has proven himself to be a reliable and consistent weapon on offense. Penn State has famously been using a running back by committee philosophy for the first half of the season, and so far, it’s worked out fairly well. However, the backs are starting to separate themselves into tiers, and a tipping point is coming up.
Here’s the stats for the committee (including Sean Clifford, who, through 6 games, is Penn State’s leading rusher with 59 attempts.
Performance from Penn State’s top-5 rushers so far this year, through 6 games.
As you can see, Noah Cain is starting to set himself apart in terms of his attempts and his TDs. Now, attempts are James Franklin’s decision, so he hasn’t influenced that stat line (but he has made the most of it by being consistent).
TDs are another one where he is obviously putting the ball in the endzone, but he is also being given the opportunity more than other backs. He hasn’t been nearly as explosive as Journey Brown or Devyn Ford. His TD runs have been for 3, 9, 2, 13, 2, and 5 yards. So, I’d give more credit to our offensive line for carving a hole, rather than him making some explosive play to punch it in himself.
In terms of Yards per Attempt, as mentioned, Brown and Ford are the leaders here. Each of them are hovering around 7 yards per attempt. Brown has also been a threat in the pass game, albeit on a minuscule 7 receptions. That being said, Cain’s YPA are nothing to (I can never remember how this saying goes) sniff? — at. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, or in other words, half a first down per attempt. I’ll take that any day, considering only 16 teams in D-I average more than that. As in whole teams, that get to switch out their backs and put in fresh ones.
So now that we have an idea of where Noah Cain stands in the hierarchy of RBs (in my opinion – pretty even with the top 3), the question is what to do about the snap count for each guy.
My dad, and noted Staturdays commenter, brought up an interesting point about the transfer portal, and if Franklin is scared of its implications in the first full season of use. Given that Penn State lost a lot of prolific talent to other programs in the offseason (mainly the drop-plagued wide receivers and defensive backs), that fear might still be lingering in his mind.
His concern was that Franklin may be spreading the ball out more than the data suggests in order to keep all four guys content with their decision to attend The Pennsylvania State University. This could be the case, but there are two edges to that sword.
Play all four backs evenly, and they all get playing time and are happy, but you may not get the optimal production in the run game.
Play all four backs evenly, and the true “star” RB that deserves more snaps than he’s being given enters the transfer portal anyway, looking for a program that will give him his fair share of the workload (Noah Cain currently carries 24% of it at Penn State. Not that these two players are comparable yet, but for reference Jonathon Taylor receives 47% of the workload in terms of attempts.)
Either way, it looks like the committee is a risky option once you have found your guy. Now, in the first half of the season, Franklin didn’t have much of a choice. These guys are young and Franklin needs to play them to figure out what they’ve got in a real game (Brown is a junior, Slade is a sophomore, and Ford and Cain are Freshmen).
Unfortunately for us (and Franklin), Penn State’s data doesn’t really hint at whether a committee or a star RB is best. In the games where we have employed the most committee-style run-game, they have been blowouts against bad defenses. Everybody and their little brother got into the game, and regardless of who was toting the ball, they were carrying it well. So the data is skewed.
Yards per Attempt for the team in games where Penn State RBs shared the ball, vs. when they used a star RB (30% or more of the workload).
When a Penn State rusher got over 30% of the workload (which has only happened in 3 of 6 games), we actually rushed worse than when the ball was spread out, by more than 1 yard per attempt difference. That being said, the games where we rushed by committee were against Idaho, Maryland, and Purdue, all of which we beat up on.
So for now, I am arguing for Franklin to continue what he’s doing and spread the ball out. The past few weeks have given all of us a favorable impression of Noah Cain, and rightly so, but let’s not ignore the impact that having four (or five, shoutout Sean Clifford) versatile running threats can have on the game.
Staturdays 