Staturdays

Journey Brown

  • Another Look at the Penn State RB Position: Success Rate, Yards Gained Distribution, and Standard Deviation

    With Noah Cain out the last two weeks, we’ve seen a lot more of Journey Brown in the run game as the official RB1 — he’s handled nearly 50% of the workload in the past two games. It’s been exciting at times, given Brown’s big-play ability in both the run and the pass game. However, he’s always felt like a boom-or-bust back to me. I wanted to see what the data showed and see if my impression was true.

    While Brown has been leading the RB committee most of the season in yards per attempt both on the ground and in the air, the fan consensus has been for Noah Cain to be RB1. I have been wondering why this has been the case, given that both Brown and Devyn Ford have better YPA than him. The only conclusion I could draw, given the eye-test and feedback from loyal PSU fans, is that Cain is the more “reliable” back. Some people call this “success rate”: the percentage of plays that are deemed “successful”.

    In essence, this looks like:

    • gaining 5 yards on 1st and 10
    • 70% of the yardage to go on 2nd down
    • all the remaining yards to go on 3rd or 4th down.

    Success rate is factored into PPA (Predicted Points Added), the cousin of EPA. At a glance, justifying the majority opinion is the fact that Noah Cain leads the RB committee in PPA (Data is courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, and you can see this data for yourself here).

    Noah Cain leads all PSU RBs with .261 average predicted points added in the 2019 season.

    I decided to look at it in two additional ways: the distribution of yards gained on each run, and the standard deviation of run plays. Let’s take a look at the graph first.

    Distribution of yards gained on run-plays only, for the Penn State rushers.

    This graph shows us how many yards each runner gains, bucketed into groups of 5 yards. I limited the graph to 20 yards so we can compare everyone easily, but this doesn’t do Brown justice in terms of just how explosive he can be. Even from this graph, we can see that he has a higher percentage of rushes of 10+ yards than any of the other feature backs. What the graph doesn’t show is that he also has five runs of greater than 20 yards, the most of any RB. Noah Cain has the fewest.

    With all that being said, we can quickly see that Noah Cain (top right) is the most consistent in short-yardage situations, which is why so many fans love him. Quite simply, he gets first downs. Cain has the largest proportion of his runs that go for 5-10 yards. He doesn’t get many gains of larger than that, but he also doesn’t lose yards too often. While more explosive, both Brown, Ford, and Slade have a considerably larger portion of their runs going for less than 5 yards.

    Finally, let’s look at the standard deviations of these backs’ yards per play. This will give us an idea of how much variation there is in their yards per attempt. For a simple example, if a running back ran for 5 yards every time, his mean would be 5 and standard deviation would be 0. If a running back averaged 5 yards per attempt, but only ran for either 10 yards or 0, his standard deviation would be 5, indicating more of a boom-or-bust style back (this is a rough estimate).

    Average yards per attempt (mean) and standard deviation of rushing attempts for Penn State rushers.

    So from this very exciting chart, a smaller standard deviation implies a more consistent back with less variation in each individual run play. Cain’s is considerably lower, at 4.7 yards, than the rest of the top backs. Ford and Brown, unsurprisingly, lead the way in terms of variability in their run plays. This chart further validates what the histogram above was hinting at.

    While Brown (and Ford) are certainly the undisputed backs with big-play ability, when you need a first down and a reliable few yards, Noah Cain still appears to be the guy. His status for Saturday is still up in the air, but Lord knows we’re going to need plenty of both to have a shot at the upset against #2 Ohio State.

  • Should Noah Cain be RB1?

    In the past few games, Noah Cain has proven himself to be a reliable and consistent weapon on offense. Penn State has famously been using a running back by committee philosophy for the first half of the season, and so far, it’s worked out fairly well. However, the backs are starting to separate themselves into tiers, and a tipping point is coming up.

    Here’s the stats for the committee (including Sean Clifford, who, through 6 games, is Penn State’s leading rusher with 59 attempts.

    Performance from Penn State’s top-5 rushers so far this year, through 6 games.

    As you can see, Noah Cain is starting to set himself apart in terms of his attempts and his TDs. Now, attempts are James Franklin’s decision, so he hasn’t influenced that stat line (but he has made the most of it by being consistent).

    TDs are another one where he is obviously putting the ball in the endzone, but he is also being given the opportunity more than other backs. He hasn’t been nearly as explosive as Journey Brown or Devyn Ford. His TD runs have been for 3, 9, 2, 13, 2, and 5 yards. So, I’d give more credit to our offensive line for carving a hole, rather than him making some explosive play to punch it in himself.

    In terms of Yards per Attempt, as mentioned, Brown and Ford are the leaders here. Each of them are hovering around 7 yards per attempt. Brown has also been a threat in the pass game, albeit on a minuscule 7 receptions. That being said, Cain’s YPA are nothing to (I can never remember how this saying goes) sniff? — at. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, or in other words, half a first down per attempt. I’ll take that any day, considering only 16 teams in D-I average more than that. As in whole teams, that get to switch out their backs and put in fresh ones.

    So now that we have an idea of where Noah Cain stands in the hierarchy of RBs (in my opinion – pretty even with the top 3), the question is what to do about the snap count for each guy.

    My dad, and noted Staturdays commenter, brought up an interesting point about the transfer portal, and if Franklin is scared of its implications in the first full season of use. Given that Penn State lost a lot of prolific talent to other programs in the offseason (mainly the drop-plagued wide receivers and defensive backs), that fear might still be lingering in his mind.

    His concern was that Franklin may be spreading the ball out more than the data suggests in order to keep all four guys content with their decision to attend The Pennsylvania State University. This could be the case, but there are two edges to that sword.

    1. Play all four backs evenly, and they all get playing time and are happy, but you may not get the optimal production in the run game.
    2. Play all four backs evenly, and the true “star” RB that deserves more snaps than he’s being given enters the transfer portal anyway, looking for a program that will give him his fair share of the workload (Noah Cain currently carries 24% of it at Penn State. Not that these two players are comparable yet, but for reference Jonathon Taylor receives 47% of the workload in terms of attempts.)

    Either way, it looks like the committee is a risky option once you have found your guy. Now, in the first half of the season, Franklin didn’t have much of a choice. These guys are young and Franklin needs to play them to figure out what they’ve got in a real game (Brown is a junior, Slade is a sophomore, and Ford and Cain are Freshmen).

    Unfortunately for us (and Franklin), Penn State’s data doesn’t really hint at whether a committee or a star RB is best. In the games where we have employed the most committee-style run-game, they have been blowouts against bad defenses. Everybody and their little brother got into the game, and regardless of who was toting the ball, they were carrying it well. So the data is skewed.

    Yards per Attempt for the team in games where Penn State RBs shared the ball, vs. when they used a star RB (30% or more of the workload).

    When a Penn State rusher got over 30% of the workload (which has only happened in 3 of 6 games), we actually rushed worse than when the ball was spread out, by more than 1 yard per attempt difference. That being said, the games where we rushed by committee were against Idaho, Maryland, and Purdue, all of which we beat up on.

    So for now, I am arguing for Franklin to continue what he’s doing and spread the ball out. The past few weeks have given all of us a favorable impression of Noah Cain, and rightly so, but let’s not ignore the impact that having four (or five, shoutout Sean Clifford) versatile running threats can have on the game.

  • The Caboose of the Boilermakers

    We are coming up on another homecoming week in Happy Valley this Saturday, October 5th. The Boilermakers of Purdue are limping their way to State College to face off against the Nittany Lions for the 19th time in their competitive history. Penn State holds a 14-3-1 all-time record against Purdue and are strong favorites to get that 15th win. As of Monday, Penn State is favored by four touchdowns – a large margin, that to be honest, is likely modest.

    The other day during a press conference, Purdue Head Coach Jeff Brohm told media that 6 of his players would not be playing in the game due to injury. These include: starting QB and promising athlete Elijah Sindelar, DT Lorenzo Neal, WR Jared Sparks, backup RBs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship, and most importantly, superstar in the making, all-purpose WR Rondale Moore.

    These injuries are bound to do massive damage to whatever offensive attack Purdue wants to implement against Penn State on Saturday. Most teams would not be able to survive their QB, 2 RBs, and a WR all out for the same game – but Purdue especially, who relies on Moore and Sindelar to execute (basically anything), does not look favorable this weekend.

    Elijah Sindelar, the senior QB, was having a great start to his season; in just three games:

    • he was completing 64.3% of his passes for about 1000 yards
    • he had 9 TDs and 3 INTs
    • he was able to run in another TD

    Their backup QB (who PSU will face Saturday) has not been nearly as good, only completing 51.4% of his passes for 3 TDs and 4 INTs, reminiscent of Kyle’s long-lost Heisman darkhorse D’Eriq King. Losing your starting QB is always going to be a tough hill to climb, but the absence of Rondale Moore is much more damning for Purdue. This kid is a superstar and if you don’t want to take my word for it just check out his highlight reel against Ohio State in 2018. His freshman year he caught 114 passes and put up nearly 1500 scrimmage yards with 14 TDs. This year there was more than plenty of Heisman buzz about him and led Purdue with 29 receptions and 390 scrimmage yards. These two playmakers are the heart and soul of this offense and without them Purdue will surely struggle to move the ball against a stout Penn State defense in Happy Valley in front of a homecoming crowd.

    I predict that Penn State will win this game without much controversy. Coming off of a strong momentum building game in Maryland, the #LawnBoyz will be ready to stomp the Boilermakers and their weird mascot.

    The betting line for this game is Penn State -28.0 and 55.5. For those who don’t know, that means the total points scored between both teams is meant to be 55-56 and Penn State is supposed to win by 28 points. Basically Vegas is predicting a 42-14 win for Penn State. I think the score will more resemble something along the lines of 49-3. The parlay (combined odds of multiple bets) of choosing Penn State to win by more than 28 and for the score to be less than 55.5 is +440. These odds essentially work out as such, if you bet $100 on said parlay and win – you will receive a total of $440. I put down some of my own money on this parlay because I really do think that Purdue will have an immensely hard time scoring points. Following my logic, this would allow PSU to win by more than 28 and not allow more than 55 points to score (Staturdays can not be held responsible for your gambling losses, however may be entitled to fair compensation for your profits. LLC, all rights reserved, yada yada.)

    Outside of the game lines themselves, there are a few things to watch for going into the 5th game of the season:

    • Any true-freshman who has played snaps in all 4 previous games will burn their Red Shirt if they do get playing time.
      • Players like LBs Lance Dixon and Brandon Smith, DBs Jaquan Brisker and Keaton Ellis, OL Caedan Wallace, and RBs Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have all played 4 games already in their true-freshman year. If they do play against Purdue, they will have officially burned their Red Shirt. It is safe to say that Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have earned playing time all season – but we will wait to see who else will be year-long contributors.
    • Micah Parsons coming back with a vengeance.
      • LBs and DLs had a feast on the Maryland offense last Saturday, but unfortunately due to a targeting penalty – Micah Parsons sat most of the game. I expect him to come back hungry against Purdue this week. Don’t be surprised if Micah puts up a multi-sack game or maybe even forces a fumble or two.
    • Clarity among the RB situation.
      • We are coming to the time now where either a hierarchy of RBs will emerge or a true rotation will be the situation going forward. Journey Brown has earned the starting role but really is more or less splitting time with the other backs. They all have proven their worth be it in the run or the passing game. After this game we will have a clearer look into the future of this teams RB situation heading into the more competitive part of the schedule.
    • Another career game for Sean Clifford?
      • Purdue’s defense has been gashed in the passing game so far this season, letting up 295 passing yards to Nevada, 420 to Vanderbilt, and 396 to Minnesota. If Purdue struggled to get pressure on Nevada’s Carson Strong and allowed him to nearly clip 300 passing yards and 3 TDs – what will Clifford be able to accomplish?

    All in all, these are some exciting times for Penn State. Fans should head to Beaver Stadium confident on Saturday and should hope for a nice comfortable win. There is a tough road game ahead, but we can only look at the game currently on the schedule. Let’s go win game number five. We Are.

    4-0.