Staturdays

College Football Playoff

  • Updated Preseason College Football Rankings

    Updated Preseason College Football Rankings

    We’ve updated our Elo Ratings since the last time we wrote about them. Specifically, we’ve recalculated the expected wins and win probabilities of all the teams based on their updated schedules. This resulted in lower overall win totals given the shortened season, but some teams have a higher win probability for the season as a result of the easier conference-only schedule (looking at you Notre Dame).

    We’ll update these every week or so as the games are played, and the expected wins will update accordingly based on the actual result of the games. So we’ll have a clearer picture as the season goes on of exactly where each team will end up. But for now, this will give us a good idea of what we should expect.

    Updated Top 25 rankings in Elo Rating.

    What’s interesting/sad is that there are several teams in the top 25 that are projected to lose nearly half their games. In a normal season, that would never happen, but it’s a real possibility this year with only six conferences playing in the Fall. That’s very good news for teams like Appalachian State, UCF, and Memphis. These non-power-5 schools would be a long shot to make any sort of playoff in a normal year, but the door is wide open if they were able to win out and one or two of the top four lose a game or two.

    Of those three, Appalachian State has the best chance to win out according to our simulation. We’ll post the full results of the season sim in the coming days.

    Full Rankings For All Teams

    The entire rankings based on Elo Rating for all 77 teams.

    BYU is also in a good position after their win against Navy. The rankings and expected wins reflect the fact that BYU has already won a game, essentially giving them a 100% win probability for any games that have been won already, or a 0% for any games already lost. They’re now projected to win 84% of their scheduled games. However, they are only scheduled for 8 games so they won’t be factored in to any playoff discussion in all likelihood.

  • Bowl Watch Season

    Things are looking hopeful for the end of this Penn State Football season after Tuesday’s rankings sat the Nittany Lions at 10th in the nation following a tough loss against Ohio State. Penn State played this historically good OSU team better than anyone had in the nation to this point and that clearly sat well enough with the committee to keep them in the top 10.

    We have all now crossed over into bowl watching season since PSU’s chance at a playoff berth is dead. That doesn’t mean that Penn State can’t compete in an elite bowl, and with the recent rankings – their chances of doing just that have increased dramatically. Being ranked ahead of Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Oregon at this point in the season are huge indicators that a New Year’s Six bowl is on the horizon.

    NY6 bowl selection is a little complicated but this should help break it down. It is worth mentioning that bowl selection committees technically have their own private rankings but they have been very consistent with the CFP rankings so I am going to act like they are the same thing for the purpose of not confusing everyone.

    There are 6 elite-level bowl games in College Football and they are as such: Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Peach Bowl. These are what is known as the New Year’s Six and outside of the playoff, the most impressive landing destination for a football team after a season is over. Two of these bowl games every year (cycling randomly) are what makes up the playoff. 1v4 in one game and 2v3 in the other. The remaining 4 games are decided by conference tie-ins or at-large bids. Conference tie-ins mean the champion of the conference or the highest ranked team in said conference that isn’t in the playoff. Here are what those games look like when they are not part of the playoff:

    Rose Bowl: Best Big Ten vs Best PAC 12

    Sugar Bowl: Best SEC vs Best Big 12

    Orange Bowl: Best ACC vs Next Best Big 10, SEC, or Notre Dame

    Peach/Cotton/Fiesta Bowl: At-Large vs. At-Large

    This year the Fiesta and Peach Bowls will make up the playoff so that leaves the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Cotton bowls to make up the remaining spots for teams to fill. The one other stipulation to remember is that the highest ranked Group of Five team (team not in a power 5 conference) gets an automatic bid to a NY6 bowl. This year the only non-conference tie-in bowl game with a possible spot for a Go5 team would be the Cotton Bowl. This leaves only one at large bid left to go to a NY6 game (the other team in the Cotton Bowl) and that would be the highest ranked team that doesn’t already have a NY6 slot.

    This leaves Penn State with three different possibilities for NY6 destinations (because the Sugar Bowl has SEC and B12 tie-in’s). Disclaimer – this is all assuming PSU handles Rutgers Saturday.

    Rose Bowl: For Penn State to go to this game they would need to be the B1G champion or be the highest ranked B1G team not in the playoff. The B1G Championship game is off the table so they would need to be the next highest ranked. For this to happen we would need a few games to go our way. First, Wisconsin would need to beat Minnesota and OSU would need to beat UM this Saturday. This would push UM further down in the rankings and Minnesota would drop below us. Regardless of the fact that Minnesota beat PSU head to head, the committee would still favor a 2-loss Penn State over a 2-loss Minnesota as seen when both teams had 1 loss. Wisconsin would propel ahead of PSU likely after a win at Minnesota and would head to Indianapolis to face OSU in the championship game. Here we would need OSU to beat Wisconsin, sending them back down in the rankings. If all that is the case, OSU would make the playoff and PSU would be the next best in the B1G. It is a possibility for sure, the biggest game to watch is Wisconsin v Minnesota because I expect OSU to handle their business regardless of their next two opponents.

    Orange Bowl: This bowl game goes to the second highest ranked B1G, SEC, or Notre Dame vs the best ACC team. Should PSU not go to the Rose Bowl and another B1G team is ranked ahead of us, this would be the next option. This game is why being placed ahead of Florida is such a big deal. For this game to be our destination, PSU fans would be rooting for two SEC teams to make the playoff. If not, because LSU/Georgia/Bama are all ranked ahead of PSU, one of those teams would make the Orange bowl ahead of us. One would make the playoff, one the Sugar, and one the Orange. For two SEC teams to get into the playoffs we would need either Georgia to beat LSU and the committee to put both in, or for the committee to put Bama as their 4th team if LSU takes down Georgia. The issue is #6 Utah and #7 OU have a chance to win their respective conferences and could hop Bama for that 4th spot.

    Cotton Bowl: If I had to take a guess, this is where I would think PSU will land. This game has one final spot for an at-large team – meaning the highest ranked team not already in a NY6 bowl game. Because we are currently ranked 10th, and don’t really have any real reason to assume we will drop below this, (Rutgers is bad) even if the Rose or Orange bowls don’t play out the way we would want them too, this would be the spot PSU would land assuming there isn’t chaos.

    Chaos: Michigan beats OSU and/or Wisconsin wins the B1G and/or VA Tech beats Clemson and so on and so forth. Nothing is set in stone yet but a lot of crazy things could happen over the next two weeks that could shake things up in the rankings in a major way and send PSU to likely the Outback Bowl in Tampa. A good game, but not an elite NY6 bowl.

    So, we know our bowl options and we know to root for OSU and Wisconsin next week. It is a bit of a nervous time but also exciting. There will be a much clearer vision of our bowl outlook Sunday morning but for now we can all get amped up for a crazy week of football ahead. And if you’re bored maybe check out the PSU v Rutgers game this week … should be a fun one. We Are.

    9-2

  • 4 The First Time

    I am anxious. We spoke a while ago about how if Penn State could go 3-0 in the Iowa/UM/MSU stretch then they would be a national championship contender ranked somewhere in the top 6 of the nation. Well late last night, it was revealed that Penn State would be starting their CFP Committee rankings at #4. Number four. For the first time in committee history, Penn State is ranked in the coveted top 4 meaning that if the season ended today, they would be playing for a national title. This is huge. Just from an optics standpoint and in terms of national conversation, being ranked in the top 4 this late in the season, at any point, is a massive achievement. The work that PSU players and coaches have put in get recognized in a way that no other ranking system could and it really does prove that under Franklin, this program is up there with the nation’s elite. Seeing Sean Clifford in the ESPN top 4 graphic along with the top 3 QBs was enough to give me and most PSU fans alike goosebumps. The excitement has now reached another high and the stakes are now even higher.

    The only problem… the season isn’t over. Not even close. The last 3 game stretch was hard but this upcoming one may be even harder. Starting with a trip to face off against an undefeated Minnesota team, followed by the best Indiana team since the Franklin era began, and concluding with the game that has been circled on everyone’s calendar against the team from Columbus. I’m not going to go through all of the scenarios again because there are really only two: win all three or nothing. I know there are different circumstances that could sway what happens and PSU can find a way to sneak into a B1G championship with a loss, but there is no point in even thinking that way. The College Football Playoff Committee has just told Penn State that they believe they are ELITE and now it is Penn State’s turn to prove it. We must go into Minnesota with swagger and confidence and play our best football because we all know damn well they will be just as motivated as we are.

    There are plenty of people already underestimating the Minnesota team because of their weak strength of schedule, but we all need to remind ourselves that they are 8-0 just like us. They beat the opponents that they had ahead of them and we are no different. They have not faced a defense or offense like ours, but that doesn’t mean they are not up to the task. They have 3 wide receivers who are playing at an extremely high level and will be the toughest core that PSU has seen this far into the season. They have depth at running back and a big strong offensive line that is likely to be another unit that is either the best or close to the best that PSU has seen. And oh yeah – their QB isn’t too bad himself. Truth is, this offense is going to be the best that Penn State has faced this season. We cannot assume that we have more talent and that alone will win us this game, because it will not. A confident team is a dangerous team and Minnesota does not lack any.

    Good news? Penn State doesn’t either. I think we match up well with the Gophers. Their QB is non-mobile which should open up some opportunity for our rested defensive line who I expect to be hungry. They have RB depth but we stop the run really well. Their RBs and TEs don’t pose much of a threat in the passing game, so our DBs can focus their attention a little more straight-up than against an Iowa or Michigan offense. Minnesota has a tough senior filled defense with a lot of talent at DE and LB, but I expect Penn State’s offense to have a great game plan to find ways to get our playmakers the ball and keep the Minnesota defense guessing. And guess what, Noah Cain is listed as RB1 for the first time this season, finally answering Kyle’s question.

    This should be a great game and I expect Penn State to win. I expect the Nittany Lions to go into the game hungry and play their best football late in the already impressive season. I expect that nobody in that locker room is underestimating the talent that the Gophers bring and will understand that the opposition is just as hungry as them. I expect Penn State to be 9-0 and ranked #3 in the country next Tuesday night.

    This team has come a long way. Penn State Football was supposed to be handed the death sentence 8 years ago and they have been nothing but resilient and impressive since. Bill O’Brien and then James Franklin have done a tremendous job not only keeping the program afloat, but allowing it to thrive and continue to grow. What Franklin has done with this program is not talked about enough. In the past four years only Nick Saban (Bama) and Dabo Sweeny (Clemson) have more wins attached to their program than James. If bringing his team to #4 in the country for the first time in program history under the new playoff system WITHOUT Barkley and WITHOUT McSorely and WITHOUT the rest of the superstar talent that left between 2016-2018 (Gesicki, Godwin, to name a few) doesn’t show you that he is one of the best coaches in the country, then I don’t know what will. The talent keeps reloading and it is time to prove that We Are among the elite programs that are contending year in and year out. I couldn’t be more excited than I am right now to say that I support Penn State Football and I am ready for the game this Saturday. We Are 8-0. Lets get that 9th.