Win probabilities for remaining bowl games, including the CFB Playoff Semifinal matchups and the rest of the New Year's Six bowl games. Home-field advantage adjustments were removed for these games. Elo win probabilities for all the upcoming bowl games.
Well folks, after 15 weeks that felt like 30 weeks, we finally made it. Conference Championship week is here, and all five Power-5 conferences are hosting games. We'll have those win probabilities up later this week, but for now, let's see how the Elo rankings look after the regular season. For more CFB Playoff analysis, … Continue reading Week 16 Elo Rankings
After 14 weeks of college football, Elo has the same top 4 as the College Football Playoff Committee (in a slightly different order). After that, things look a bit different, notably with LSU at 5, who fell off significantly from last year's National Championship team. With shortened seasons in some conferences, prior-year performance is still … Continue reading Week 15 Elo Rankings
We've updated our Elo Ratings since the last time we wrote about them. Specifically, we've recalculated the expected wins and win probabilities of all the teams based on their updated schedules. This resulted in lower overall win totals given the shortened season, but some teams have a higher win probability for the season as a … Continue reading Updated Preseason College Football Rankings
Laying out all the possible PSU bowl destinations.
Penn State is in the top 4 under the new playoff system for the first time in program history. Keep winning and there will be more firsts to come.
Every fan, at some point, has complained that their team starts slow at the beginning of football games. It's one of the cardinal sins of college football -- not coming ready to play and finding yourself down early after giving up an easy touchdown at the start of the game. Well, now we can actually … Continue reading These are the fastest-starting (and slowest-starting) college football teams