General

  • Paper Tigers

    Penn State Football took care of business last Saturday against a Ball State team that, while good in the MAC, was unable to compete with the Nittany Lions. Watching the game, I was yet again impressed with the defense and am excited to see what a full season at defensive end for Jesse Luketa is going to look like. Luketa made an incredible one-handed interception off of the line on Saturday and looks like a brand-new player since his transition from linebacker. There were many defensive snaps taken by second and third string players which is exactly what one could have wanted from a game like this. Those snaps help build depth for years to come and with Penn State’s schedule being so unbelievably tough this year, they need to find those snaps wherever they can.

    Offensively I was particularly underwhelmed but not enough so to be concerned. I think that the vanilla play calling and the pretty, shall I say boring, game was due to the fact that after two offensive drives and two touchdowns it was more or less already won by Penn State. Sean Clifford played another decent game where he did what he was asked to do and while again there were some throws that were missed, none were particularly dangerous. Again, no turnovers for the Nittany Lions and that is going to be key for Penn State this season. With how aggressive and fast this defense seems, keeping the ball with the offense and finishing enough drives when in the red zone may be enough to beat almost all teams on the schedule.

    All in all, there are not a ton of takeaways that I have from this game. There was never really a point where I was concerned that Ball State would even threaten, let alone win. It was said in practice this week that we have yet to see much of Mike Yurcich’s offense, so I am very excited to see what is being cooked up for this week in the White Out against the Auburn Tigers.

    Speaking of teams that are hard to find takeaways from, lets discuss Auburn. Auburn’s strength of record so far (having played Akron and FCS team Alabama State) ranks so low that it is among FCS teams. Yes, this means that they have played easier opponents than every single team in the FBS and many in the FCS. When you look at their consecutive 50-point wins against these teams, there is not much you can say other than they took care of business. When talking Auburn and trying to predict the outcome of this game, you need to look to the last few years as a lesson.

    Auburn is a lot like Penn State in the SEC historically and now. They are typically a good-great program known for a consistent solid defense who has to run into the buzz saw of a team that is on always waiting for them on their half of the conference. They have Bama and we have Ohio. This year they seem to have another great defense and an offense that the book is still out on. Their defense is likely not as fast as Penn State’s is, but it is a little bigger. They carry a quarterback who came into the league with a lot of hype but who has significantly underperformed his expectations, especially in road games. They have decent pass catchers, but nobody really stands out as an all-conference type of player. Auburn’s offensive line is solid (but not great) and is constantly helped out by one of the best running backs in the league.

    I am not convinced that Auburn is going to be able to generate enough big plays with their offense that they can win this game. Former 5-star QB for Auburn, Bo Nix, does not have a good track record in road games.

    Home Stats: 64% completion%, 3078 yards, 20 TDs, 1 INT, 4.5 yards per carry, 9 rushing TDs

    Away Stats:  54% completion%, 1617 yards, 9 TDs, 10 INT, 2.3 yards per carry, 5 rushing TDs

    It appears as if the White Out may be enough alone to freak Bo Nix out for this game without even taking into consideration how solid the PSU defense has looked. The strength of Auburns offense will come from their sophomore running back Tank Bigsby. Rushing for 834 yards (6 per carry) and 5 TDs last season and already 241 and 2 this year – he is poised to perform as one of the best RBs in the sport over the next few years. The problem for Auburn is that if Penn State can focus to take him out of the game (much like Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin in 2019) I am unsure Auburn will be able to generate enough offense elsewhere. Bo Nix will have a play a pretty great game to win on Saturday, and if history tells you anything – he may not have it in him.

    Auburn is anything but proven this year. Penn State is battle tested and ready. I see this game as another strong win for the Nittany Lions despite what you may hear from SEC fans on Twitter. The question marks that surround the Auburn team all fall into the strength of this Nittany Lion defense and that does not bode well for the Tigers. For Penn State to win this game they are going to have to limit turnovers, finish drives, and get pressure early on Bo Nix. For Auburn to win this game they are going to need to brave the White Out crowd and play a brand of football away that they have not done in many years. Nittany Lions got this.

    1-0. WE ARE!

  • “Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day

    “Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day

    Plus: A thought about ‘Bama-Florida, and a 10% Vegas underdog 👀

    Well that just happened…

    We ended up having some quality college football games—and even better weather—on Saturday. The sun was out, which meant double-TVs on the deck (had to watch the US Open women’s final too, of course!) And I watched another Pac-12 game, this time against the Big Ten, so two halves make a whole!

    I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong on two fronts last week.

    First, Ohio State did indeed have to worry about the Oregon Ducks, despite their 89.4% win probability, which, as we know, is nowhere near a certainty.

    Second, the Week 2 slate was not weak. Well, it was, but not if you watched all the right games and ignored whatever was going on down in the SEC.

    Wow, that was so brave of me.

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    The Buckeyes made it look close at the end, but it never felt close. Oregon controlled the game on both sides, first—it felt like—on defense, holding OSU to a touchdown in the first half. And then in the second half, with an explosive offense that ran past OSU defenders.

    And the run-game is what set the two teams apart. According to collegefootballdata.com, Oregon running back CJ Verdell averaged .38 Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play, while Miyan Williams for OSU managed only .07. The QBs were both productive, with .38 PPA for C.J. Stroud and .41 for Anthony Brown. So no Stroud slander just yet. The Buckeyes’ issues run deeper.

    Drew was working on our in-game win probability model last weekend, and found that we were very low on Ohio State’s chances at the half, even though they were only down 7!

    Near the end of the game, our model shifted sentiment, giving Ohio State a 69% chance to pull out the win. We’re not exactly sure what changed, but Ohio State were indeed in it down to the wire. There are still plenty of kinks to work out, but it was interesting to see the big swings as the game progressed.

    In other big Week 2 results, Iowa upset Iowa State (although is 10 beating 9 really an upset?), unranked Stanford walloped #14 USC and cost Clay Helton the keys to his program, and Arkansas did the same to #15 Texas, giving them a taste of what the SEC-life might be like in a few years. If they struggled to find success in the Big-12 after being “back” for the last four years, it’s gonna take a few decades of being “back” in the SEC before they see any success in that conference.

    Oh, and Virginia Tech beat Middle Tennessee. What’d I tell you? Easy money.

    Rumors Swirling

    With Clay Helton’s firing, that special time of year is coming early this fall, and will unfortunately stick with us all season: who will be the next coach of USC? Unsurprisingly, James Franklin’s name was one of the first to be thrown out there. I’ll squash this rumor here and now by asking the simple question… why? Why would Franklin want to leave what he’s got in Happy Valley? He has the #1 recruiting class for 2022 (USC’s is 29th, for now…), the #12 class for 2023 (USC is not ranked), a top-10 football program right now, and the 7th highest salary in college football, which more than covers the cost of living in central Pennsylvania.

    And now, my “only conceivable reasons for anyone to want to go to USC” list:

    – In-N-Out

    – Getting a sick tan

    – Putting avocado on everything you eat

    And these are easily outweighed by fires, mudslides, and running out of water all the time. So keep looking, USC.

    Coming Soon

    I’m working on an article about quarterbacks and interceptions. Namely, how do quarterbacks play after throwing one? Are they rattled? Do they become more conservative? More accurate? We’re going to find out, and see who cracks under pressure, and who balls out in the face of adversity. Be on the lookout for that article to kickoff your Saturday morning.

    I don’t have much to share with you, but for now here are the most-benched quarterbacks since 2014 after throwing an interception.

    Week 3 (already?)

    It’s the final week of non-conference play (kinda). And thankfully, we have some teams challenging themselves this weekend. Highlighted by none other than Auburn vs. Penn State in a primetime White Out game. Elo has Penn State as slight favorites at 60.8% win probability in this matchup, but it could go either way.

    Below are the win probabilities for the Power-5 teams, and, where appropriate (or inappropriate), my commentary. If you’re looking for Group of 5 games, check out staturdays.com.

    Big Ten

    Nebraska playing Oklahoma this weekend is exactly like when you sign up for the marathon a year ahead of time hoping that you’ll be in shape by the time the race comes around. As is usually the case, Nebraska will be puking on the sidewalk 3 miles in, and might duck into a Porta-Potty, take off their race bib, and try to blend back into the crowd.

    But in all seriousness, we have a lot of other competitive games this weekend.

    ACC

    Virginia Tech @ West Virginia looks like the game to watch here, and keep an eye on Virginia, who is underestimated by Vegas by over 10 percentage points compared to Elo 👀.

    Big-12

    Pac-12

    I will not blame you if you don’t watch any Pac-12 football this weekend. It’s okay.

    SEC

    Florida have more of a chance to beat Alabama than Oregon did to Ohio State last week, and are underdogs by about just as much. Think about that.

    Think about it… don’t act on it.

    That’s all I’ve got for you. Enjoy your weekends and remember to check out my article this weekend!

    – Kyle

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  • Week 3 Elo Win Probabilities

    Week 3 Elo Win Probabilities

    ACC

    Big Ten

    Big-12

    Pac-12

    SEC

    American

    Conference USA

    Independents

    MAC

    Mountain West

    Sun Belt