Staturdays

Trace McSorley

  • Stickler for PSU

    How does anyone start off writing their first article? Well, um … hi!

    I’m Brian (semi-new to Staturdays) and I wanted to introduce myself seeing that I’m going to be writing more and more for this blog this upcoming college football season. If you follow me on Twitter (@Brian_Stickler) you know that I have very intense specific interests and tastes in things – which makes it somewhat hard to follow me I think. To be honest, I am not sure why anyone follows me. Unless you’re super into Penn State Football, the New York Yankees, Breaking Bad, and like a whole bunch of miscellaneous movies and TV shows that I happen to be watching at that moment, I’m not sure that the package of information I send out into the world is all that relevant to you. So assuming that you don’t know my twitter account and frankly don’t care either, I’d like to start by telling you a little bit about me and my relationship to college football, and specifically Penn State.

    I am a novice college football fan. In fact, before I attended Penn State as a freshman I don’t think I ever even watched a college football game in my life. During a tour of campus when I was 16 years old, a tour guide told the group that we would all become the biggest football fans in the world after spending a few years at school. She was definitely right … but not immediately. Admittedly, the Christian Hackenberg era didn’t do much for me right off the cuff. I did love the atmosphere of the games, the tailgating, and the community that surrounded the football games – but it wasn’t until Penn State started really winning that I became really invested.

    Does that make me a bad fan? I don’t think so. In a class I took with our beloved StaturDAD, Kyle, we learned that the product on field is what makes the difference for attendance, more than any other external factor (such as promos, weather, cost, etc.). I don’t know much, but what I can tell you is that that is unequivocally true. When Penn State beat Ohio State in the 2016 white out game there was a clear difference in the way the community behaved. The campus and surrounding areas came alive and it hasn’t died down yet, not 3 years later. Penn State Football demanded our attention, and boy did it suck me right in. I was hooked and since then I haven’t been able to unattach myself, even if I wanted to. I became a superfan – living and breathing Blue and White during the fall and craving even the heartbreak of a 3-hour rain delay loss to Michigan State during the summer. I love the games, the anticipation, the atmosphere, the players, the coaches, and especially my peers. But that last one is where I feel I differ from the rest of the twitter-verse – and this should give you a good look at what to expect from me in the future. Here are a few things that fundamentally define my fandom:

    • I do not think the backup quarterback should be starting. I am sure Will Levis is an unbelievably talented player and has tremendous potential to be a huge impact at Penn State. I am sure that Tommy Stevens did too. But QB is a really hard job … a really hard job. Our friend Sean Clifford (4 Heisman) is going to be a first-year starter for the Nittany Lions this season, and while there will be times where he will shine, there will also be times where he will struggle. That doesn’t mean he sucks or should be replaced — that means he is growing and learning on the field in one of the most competitive environments in all of college sports. Twitter was ready to write off Trace McSorely during the Michigan game last year. Yes, #9 was getting monstrous hate every single pick or incompletion. That absolutely baffled me. He was arguably the best QB in the history of Penn State, and a large portion of the fan base thought his backup was going to be better than him. What are the odds of that? Kyle? Drew? You are the stat guys, let me know the probability that anyone was going to outperform the PSU leader in almost every measurable offensive statistic. It’s unlikely. We need to trust our coaches and know that they evaluate talent much different (and way better) than we do. Which brings me to my next point…
    • I am not one to call for the firing of coaches off the cuff. I will not use the heinous hashtag, #FireFranklin, every single time Penn State loses a football game. You know why? Because it is ridiculous. There are not many proven coaches in college football like James Franklin right now, and I am curious where all these fans calling for his head would like to find his replacement. How many active coaches right now have won a Big Ten Championship? The answer is 2 – and we have one of them. The truth is, sometimes coaches do need to go – like David Corley (PSU WR Coach) after a horrid year for the receiving core. I am just far more comfortable with someone who knows more than me making that decision. I said before, I know almost nothing – but here are two things I do know.
      1. Penn State exceeded all expectations following the sanctions in 2011
      2. I like people who like Penn State

    This is why I like Franklin — He wins with integrity, he recruits competitively with the best teams in the country, and he leads with clear direction — all of which demand respect and exude warmth. The guy is a really good coach, and just because we lost a few games doesn’t mean he should go. That, and he’s going to lead the Nittany Lions to a national championship during his tenure. @OldTakesExposed.

    • I root for the guys in Blue and White. All I have been saying over and over again is that I really don’t know much other than that I want to see us perform well. I am not an athlete, a coach, or a scout – I am simply a fan. So when there is someone on my screen in Nittany Lion gear, I am going to root for that dude to kick ass. I will not root for someone on this team to fail so that another can get an opportunity.

    Those three points make up my fundamental beliefs about sports and Penn State in general. It is important to make that clear because if you are looking for an overly emotional reactional blog this is not necessarily the place for you to get that release.

    It’ll come up over and over again throughout the season, but I cannot wait to experience that joy, excitement, anticipation, and even heartbreak with you all over the next 16 weeks. Let’s watch some college football together. Man does it feel good to be saying that again! We Are!

    Your Pal,

    Brian

  • Trace McSorley might have snapped his passing TD streak, but he still did himself some favors in the Heisman race

    Trace McSorley might have snapped his passing TD streak, but he still did himself some favors in the Heisman race

    Let’s all collectively pour one out for Trace. He is no longer the FBS leader in consecutive games with a touchdown pass. You could just tell that he wanted to throw the ball in one of the two red zone trips where he ended up practically jogging it into the end zone. We all wanted him to throw it too, but the gaps were too wide open and the game too close to care about some meaningless streak. In the grand scheme of things, it didn’t matter, and Trace didn’t really care.

    That’s why we love him: he has a win at all costs attitude.

    It also showed earlier in the game when he gave up another passing touchdown opportunity to Tommy Stevens, who – in his first attempt of the season – slipped one into the corner like he’d been the starting quarterback all season. Our backup QB’s are now a combined 6/6 with 3 TD’s – talk about depth. Unfortunately for Sean Clifford, you usually need a larger body of work to warrant votes from actual Heisman voters. But hey, he still has mine.

    Trace, on the other hand, does have a large body of work, and that body just hit the gym and worked on its glamour muscles in the win against Indiana. Trace put in work, despite not having a passing TD, and he saw a big jump in our QB rankings for Week 8. Up into the top 10 for Power 5 QB’s, and up 9 spots to 18 in the FBS rankings. It wasn’t pretty at times, and McSorley came away with another lackluster completion rate, partly due to the drops that continue to plague the PSU wide receivers. McSorley walked away with a 52.8% completion rate, but if we factor out the drops (which I painstakingly counted by hand, and then debated over who was at fault with my dad), he comes out to 68.1% on the day – a much more respectable number. If the Penn State receivers can somehow get out of their own heads and use their super-sticky gloves to catch the ball (which, as anyone who has used them will tell you, make it nearly impossible to drop a ball), then Trace could see a second half comeback and at least be in those stupid ESPN Heisman voting tweets.

    That would be a worthy accomplishment after this season, because I don’t see any of the top quarterbacks regressing so much that McSorley has a chance to win the Heisman. Kyler Murray is playing out of his mind against stupid-bad defenses, at 3 standard deviations above the average QB level. That’s insane. Now I didn’t do research on this, but it may be the first time we see back-to-back Heisman-winners from the same school and position ever (I know, I know, this is a stats website, but we don’t do stupid shit like that historical records crap).

    After some brief half-assed research, I can confirm that this is an accurate statement by me. You heard it hear first on Staturdays blog. Tell your friends.

    Will Grier is also playing ridiculously well, and he’s responsible for almost 90% of West Virginia’s TDs, while Trace is only responsible for half. Kinda hard to argue with that. But hey, Trace still had a good week!

  • Uh oh… Trace has got some catching up to do in the Heisman Race

    Uh oh… Trace has got some catching up to do in the Heisman Race

    And what better time to make up some ground than in the biggest game of the season against one of his Heisman competitors, Dwayne Haskins?

    At the end of the first third of the season, Trace is looking pretty good. He’s pulled off an Iowa-2017-esque 4th quarter comeback drive against Appalachian State, displaying his composure under pressure, and he’s put up astronomical numbers in the air and on the ground against some pretty shaky defenses. Trace is playing well, don’t get me wrong. The issue is that – so far – a lot of guys are playing better. Now, it’s not too much to worry about yet. It’s still early, and most of these guys will fall apart once they start facing some legitimate in-conference opponents. However, in order to win the Heisman you need to have an eye-opening, record-shattering, well above-average season. After doing the math on the first 4 games, Trace is remarkably average. Here he is compared to the Top 15, plus Haskins and Tua Tagovailoa. Note Will Grier as the only Power-5 guy who’s playing at a level above 95% of the competition.

    Week4QBRankings
    Trace McSorley is the 39th ranked quarterback overall and the 19th ranked Power-5 QB.

    Now, you have to take this with a grain of salt. He is being compared to players like McKenzie Milton in the American conference and Caleb Evans in the Sun Belt: conferences whose defenses are the two worst in college football. Compared only to other Big 10 quarterbacks McSorley is doing much better, but he’s still only 3rd best in our rankings behind Haskins and the Michigan State QB.

    Part of why Trace may be hurt in our rankings is because Penn State is explosive on the ground too. Granted, he is our 2nd best rusher in yards and leader in rushing touchdowns, but the exchange of Saquon Barkley for Miles Sanders has proven an easy transition so far. My point is that a Heisman candidate is helped by putting the team on his back, and the presence of a strong ground game prevents that from happening every week. Meanwhile, Will Grier hasn’t been required to hand the ball off because the Big 12 doesn’t use defensive backs – they actually don’t even have a one on the roster – so throwing is just the path of least resistance. West Virginia is 3rd in passing yards, 73rd in rushing yards. For reference, Penn State is 61st in passing yards and 10th in rushing yards. Trace gets some points for contributing to that 10th spot, but not as many as a Grier or Haskins get for their air-attacks.

    So what is the secret to get Trace into Heisman contention? Two things: hand the ball off less, and improve his completion percentage. Right now he’s only responsible for half of all Penn State’s touchdowns. Grier is responsible for 80% of West Virginia’s. Granted, Penn State is averaging 7 touchdowns a game to WVU’s 6 and that extra TD is usually thrown by Heisman darkhorse Sean Clifford, but still. I see this fixing itself as the season goes on and we play tighter games and throw more. The completion percentage will adjust upwards too from the 54% it’s at right now, but by how much I don’t know. McSorley threw at 66.5% last year, but 57.9% the year before. Maybe if Juwan Johnson and friends eliminate some of those early-season drops, he gets to a respectable completion percentage. If he wants to stay in this Heisman race, though, he’s gonna have to play up with the big boys of Tua, Grier, and Haskins in the 70-75% range if he really wants to compete. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a baller on the field. But the numbers are against Trace 4 games in. Let’s see if a whiteout under the lights can help change that.