Staturdays

Heisman

  • Podcast: Franklin Tailgates White Out Games, Belated Penn State HBO Viewing, Tua Out and Heisman Update + Week 9 Picks

    PSU holds off against Michigan in the White Out but struggles managing the clock, Tua is out and his Heisman hopes are getting bleak, Penn State is one of two teams to have two ranked wins, and could play FIVE ranked teams by the end of the season, Franklin is a confirmed tailgater, we give our thoughts on the Penn State Football HBO special, debate whether we’d be satisfied with a Rose Bowl bid this season, and pick a bunch of Top 25 matchups in Week 9 including Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, Notre Dame vs. Michigan, Auburn vs. LSU, and of course Penn State vs. Michigan State.

    Listen to episode 11 here.
  • Trace McSorley might have snapped his passing TD streak, but he still did himself some favors in the Heisman race

    Trace McSorley might have snapped his passing TD streak, but he still did himself some favors in the Heisman race

    Let’s all collectively pour one out for Trace. He is no longer the FBS leader in consecutive games with a touchdown pass. You could just tell that he wanted to throw the ball in one of the two red zone trips where he ended up practically jogging it into the end zone. We all wanted him to throw it too, but the gaps were too wide open and the game too close to care about some meaningless streak. In the grand scheme of things, it didn’t matter, and Trace didn’t really care.

    That’s why we love him: he has a win at all costs attitude.

    It also showed earlier in the game when he gave up another passing touchdown opportunity to Tommy Stevens, who – in his first attempt of the season – slipped one into the corner like he’d been the starting quarterback all season. Our backup QB’s are now a combined 6/6 with 3 TD’s – talk about depth. Unfortunately for Sean Clifford, you usually need a larger body of work to warrant votes from actual Heisman voters. But hey, he still has mine.

    Trace, on the other hand, does have a large body of work, and that body just hit the gym and worked on its glamour muscles in the win against Indiana. Trace put in work, despite not having a passing TD, and he saw a big jump in our QB rankings for Week 8. Up into the top 10 for Power 5 QB’s, and up 9 spots to 18 in the FBS rankings. It wasn’t pretty at times, and McSorley came away with another lackluster completion rate, partly due to the drops that continue to plague the PSU wide receivers. McSorley walked away with a 52.8% completion rate, but if we factor out the drops (which I painstakingly counted by hand, and then debated over who was at fault with my dad), he comes out to 68.1% on the day – a much more respectable number. If the Penn State receivers can somehow get out of their own heads and use their super-sticky gloves to catch the ball (which, as anyone who has used them will tell you, make it nearly impossible to drop a ball), then Trace could see a second half comeback and at least be in those stupid ESPN Heisman voting tweets.

    That would be a worthy accomplishment after this season, because I don’t see any of the top quarterbacks regressing so much that McSorley has a chance to win the Heisman. Kyler Murray is playing out of his mind against stupid-bad defenses, at 3 standard deviations above the average QB level. That’s insane. Now I didn’t do research on this, but it may be the first time we see back-to-back Heisman-winners from the same school and position ever (I know, I know, this is a stats website, but we don’t do stupid shit like that historical records crap).

    After some brief half-assed research, I can confirm that this is an accurate statement by me. You heard it hear first on Staturdays blog. Tell your friends.

    Will Grier is also playing ridiculously well, and he’s responsible for almost 90% of West Virginia’s TDs, while Trace is only responsible for half. Kinda hard to argue with that. But hey, Trace still had a good week!

  • Uh oh… Trace has got some catching up to do in the Heisman Race

    Uh oh… Trace has got some catching up to do in the Heisman Race

    And what better time to make up some ground than in the biggest game of the season against one of his Heisman competitors, Dwayne Haskins?

    At the end of the first third of the season, Trace is looking pretty good. He’s pulled off an Iowa-2017-esque 4th quarter comeback drive against Appalachian State, displaying his composure under pressure, and he’s put up astronomical numbers in the air and on the ground against some pretty shaky defenses. Trace is playing well, don’t get me wrong. The issue is that – so far – a lot of guys are playing better. Now, it’s not too much to worry about yet. It’s still early, and most of these guys will fall apart once they start facing some legitimate in-conference opponents. However, in order to win the Heisman you need to have an eye-opening, record-shattering, well above-average season. After doing the math on the first 4 games, Trace is remarkably average. Here he is compared to the Top 15, plus Haskins and Tua Tagovailoa. Note Will Grier as the only Power-5 guy who’s playing at a level above 95% of the competition.

    Week4QBRankings
    Trace McSorley is the 39th ranked quarterback overall and the 19th ranked Power-5 QB.

    Now, you have to take this with a grain of salt. He is being compared to players like McKenzie Milton in the American conference and Caleb Evans in the Sun Belt: conferences whose defenses are the two worst in college football. Compared only to other Big 10 quarterbacks McSorley is doing much better, but he’s still only 3rd best in our rankings behind Haskins and the Michigan State QB.

    Part of why Trace may be hurt in our rankings is because Penn State is explosive on the ground too. Granted, he is our 2nd best rusher in yards and leader in rushing touchdowns, but the exchange of Saquon Barkley for Miles Sanders has proven an easy transition so far. My point is that a Heisman candidate is helped by putting the team on his back, and the presence of a strong ground game prevents that from happening every week. Meanwhile, Will Grier hasn’t been required to hand the ball off because the Big 12 doesn’t use defensive backs – they actually don’t even have a one on the roster – so throwing is just the path of least resistance. West Virginia is 3rd in passing yards, 73rd in rushing yards. For reference, Penn State is 61st in passing yards and 10th in rushing yards. Trace gets some points for contributing to that 10th spot, but not as many as a Grier or Haskins get for their air-attacks.

    So what is the secret to get Trace into Heisman contention? Two things: hand the ball off less, and improve his completion percentage. Right now he’s only responsible for half of all Penn State’s touchdowns. Grier is responsible for 80% of West Virginia’s. Granted, Penn State is averaging 7 touchdowns a game to WVU’s 6 and that extra TD is usually thrown by Heisman darkhorse Sean Clifford, but still. I see this fixing itself as the season goes on and we play tighter games and throw more. The completion percentage will adjust upwards too from the 54% it’s at right now, but by how much I don’t know. McSorley threw at 66.5% last year, but 57.9% the year before. Maybe if Juwan Johnson and friends eliminate some of those early-season drops, he gets to a respectable completion percentage. If he wants to stay in this Heisman race, though, he’s gonna have to play up with the big boys of Tua, Grier, and Haskins in the 70-75% range if he really wants to compete. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a baller on the field. But the numbers are against Trace 4 games in. Let’s see if a whiteout under the lights can help change that.