Staturdays

Football

  • The Caboose of the Boilermakers

    We are coming up on another homecoming week in Happy Valley this Saturday, October 5th. The Boilermakers of Purdue are limping their way to State College to face off against the Nittany Lions for the 19th time in their competitive history. Penn State holds a 14-3-1 all-time record against Purdue and are strong favorites to get that 15th win. As of Monday, Penn State is favored by four touchdowns – a large margin, that to be honest, is likely modest.

    The other day during a press conference, Purdue Head Coach Jeff Brohm told media that 6 of his players would not be playing in the game due to injury. These include: starting QB and promising athlete Elijah Sindelar, DT Lorenzo Neal, WR Jared Sparks, backup RBs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship, and most importantly, superstar in the making, all-purpose WR Rondale Moore.

    These injuries are bound to do massive damage to whatever offensive attack Purdue wants to implement against Penn State on Saturday. Most teams would not be able to survive their QB, 2 RBs, and a WR all out for the same game – but Purdue especially, who relies on Moore and Sindelar to execute (basically anything), does not look favorable this weekend.

    Elijah Sindelar, the senior QB, was having a great start to his season; in just three games:

    • he was completing 64.3% of his passes for about 1000 yards
    • he had 9 TDs and 3 INTs
    • he was able to run in another TD

    Their backup QB (who PSU will face Saturday) has not been nearly as good, only completing 51.4% of his passes for 3 TDs and 4 INTs, reminiscent of Kyle’s long-lost Heisman darkhorse D’Eriq King. Losing your starting QB is always going to be a tough hill to climb, but the absence of Rondale Moore is much more damning for Purdue. This kid is a superstar and if you don’t want to take my word for it just check out his highlight reel against Ohio State in 2018. His freshman year he caught 114 passes and put up nearly 1500 scrimmage yards with 14 TDs. This year there was more than plenty of Heisman buzz about him and led Purdue with 29 receptions and 390 scrimmage yards. These two playmakers are the heart and soul of this offense and without them Purdue will surely struggle to move the ball against a stout Penn State defense in Happy Valley in front of a homecoming crowd.

    I predict that Penn State will win this game without much controversy. Coming off of a strong momentum building game in Maryland, the #LawnBoyz will be ready to stomp the Boilermakers and their weird mascot.

    The betting line for this game is Penn State -28.0 and 55.5. For those who don’t know, that means the total points scored between both teams is meant to be 55-56 and Penn State is supposed to win by 28 points. Basically Vegas is predicting a 42-14 win for Penn State. I think the score will more resemble something along the lines of 49-3. The parlay (combined odds of multiple bets) of choosing Penn State to win by more than 28 and for the score to be less than 55.5 is +440. These odds essentially work out as such, if you bet $100 on said parlay and win – you will receive a total of $440. I put down some of my own money on this parlay because I really do think that Purdue will have an immensely hard time scoring points. Following my logic, this would allow PSU to win by more than 28 and not allow more than 55 points to score (Staturdays can not be held responsible for your gambling losses, however may be entitled to fair compensation for your profits. LLC, all rights reserved, yada yada.)

    Outside of the game lines themselves, there are a few things to watch for going into the 5th game of the season:

    • Any true-freshman who has played snaps in all 4 previous games will burn their Red Shirt if they do get playing time.
      • Players like LBs Lance Dixon and Brandon Smith, DBs Jaquan Brisker and Keaton Ellis, OL Caedan Wallace, and RBs Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have all played 4 games already in their true-freshman year. If they do play against Purdue, they will have officially burned their Red Shirt. It is safe to say that Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have earned playing time all season – but we will wait to see who else will be year-long contributors.
    • Micah Parsons coming back with a vengeance.
      • LBs and DLs had a feast on the Maryland offense last Saturday, but unfortunately due to a targeting penalty – Micah Parsons sat most of the game. I expect him to come back hungry against Purdue this week. Don’t be surprised if Micah puts up a multi-sack game or maybe even forces a fumble or two.
    • Clarity among the RB situation.
      • We are coming to the time now where either a hierarchy of RBs will emerge or a true rotation will be the situation going forward. Journey Brown has earned the starting role but really is more or less splitting time with the other backs. They all have proven their worth be it in the run or the passing game. After this game we will have a clearer look into the future of this teams RB situation heading into the more competitive part of the schedule.
    • Another career game for Sean Clifford?
      • Purdue’s defense has been gashed in the passing game so far this season, letting up 295 passing yards to Nevada, 420 to Vanderbilt, and 396 to Minnesota. If Purdue struggled to get pressure on Nevada’s Carson Strong and allowed him to nearly clip 300 passing yards and 3 TDs – what will Clifford be able to accomplish?

    All in all, these are some exciting times for Penn State. Fans should head to Beaver Stadium confident on Saturday and should hope for a nice comfortable win. There is a tough road game ahead, but we can only look at the game currently on the schedule. Let’s go win game number five. We Are.

    4-0.

  • To Pitt or not to Pitt

    Penn State and Pitt just finished their 100th meeting of the Keystone Classic in Happy Valley with the Nittany Lions prevailing 17-10. This was a great game if you had no rooted interests in either team and an even better game if you despise one or both of these schools. The action was filled with tension, big plays, defensive stands, bad coaching, worse officiating, and even a weather delay. Ultimately though, Penn State took a 53-43-4 lead on the series as a whole.

    (more…)

  • No Need to Panic Yet: Volume One

    Odds are if you’re anything like me and watch the Penn State Football games from start to finish you were less than impressed with last weeks game versus Buffalo – especially in the first half. The Nittany Lions were down 10-3 going into halftime and a restless Beaver Stadium crowd booed the team off the field.

    The truth is, they deserved the Booing. Outside of a fumble recovery followed by a quick touchdown, Penn State had been outmatched on offense and defense by a Buffalo team that lost all of their all conference players from a year before. I am not here to tell you not to boo, in fact I encourage it. You boo bad performances; you cheer for good ones.  This is how sports has always worked for its entire history.

    What I am telling you is that there is no need to panic just because Penn State didn’t look like Penn State for 30 minutes against a MAC opponent. There is a lot of good that came out of this game that matches up with the bad; and luckily fans can take away a lot more from their matchup with Buffalo than with Idaho. Let’s talk about some of the things we saw and what they could mean.

    • The time of possession favored the Bulls extremely. Buffalo had the ball for over 42 minutes of this game leaving Penn State with 17. That is more than double the time the Nittany Lions were on offense. A pretty staggering statistic, right? Frankly, it is more misleading than anything. The style of offense that each team brought Saturday night was pretty much always going to yield this result. Buffalo has two running backs they truly believe in and a QB who was starting his second ever game. They were always going to try to work the clock and have long meticulous drives down the field. Penn State was much more focused on the big play and tried to gain their yardage in chunks. They were relatively successful in this through the air (and one Sean Clifford run) because Buffalo for the most part was selling out for the rush. #14 took advantage and threw for four Touchdowns this game.
    • Third downs were a problem again. Only converting on two of nine chances, Penn State failed to extend drives when getting to third down. Comparatively, Buffalo converted on 10 of 23 attempts – nothing to brag about, but much better than the Nittany Lions. This was a bigger concern for me than the time of possession. If Penn State wants to have success against better opponents, they will need to find ways to convert on third down as well as prevent their opponents from doing the same.
    • Where the hell were all the running backs? The big four running backs total had only 10 carries for 39 yards this game, making me feel like a big dumb idiot for writing a novel about them last week. Truth is, this isn’t a real concern of mine. Buffalo looked like they were selling out to defend against the run this game, daring Clifford to be the one to beat them in his second ever start… which he did. I imagine once #14 gets a little more comfortable with his reads and Penn State faces more balanced defenses, the running backs will get many, many more opportunities to rush.
    • Ricky, my man. Ricky Slade fumbled right near the red zone the first possession back in the second half, stalling a really promising looking drive. His stat line for the day was 3 carries for 8 yards and a fumble … yikes. This is a really talented RB room and if you put the ball on the ground, you’re probably done for the day. I know it has only been two games, but Journey Brown is looking more and more like RB1. Watch that transfer portal.
    • Only one sack? Penn State was only able to drop the QB behind the line one time during this game, prompting me to tweet “Penn State DLine looking very quiet??”. From my perspective (the corner of the third floor of NYC PSU bar, Tonic East), it looked like Buffalo was able to hold off the D Line completely and run 4-8 yards whenever they wanted to. The truth is, they were dropped for 10 tackles for loss and only averaged about 3ish yards per carry as a team. On top of all of that, QB Myers released the football extremely quickly during pass plays. Not as dramatic as it seemed on TV. I think it was more frustrating to see Buffalo sustain long drives than it was actually damning for the defense.

    So overall, not so bad. It wasn’t the rout that fans and myself hoped we would see but it was enough to get a good look at some things to improve upon and things to look forward to.

    The Good: Sean Clifford looks awesome. The WRs and Pat Freiermuth are dangerous. Defense is completely solid all around.

    The Bad: Third downs on both sides of the ball. Running Back mix into the offense. Accepting a penalty on what would have resulted in a fourth down, just to let Buffalo get another chance to (successfully) convert on third down.

    The Ugly: 2-3 drops by KJ Hamler. Ricky Slade fumble. Jake Zembiec mustache.

    No need to panic just yet. I am confident that Penn State will learn from their mistakes and iron out the necessary wrinkles they will need when facing tougher opponents. After all, under Franklin, they always have. It is a very good thing to earn a comfortable win all while learning a little more about your weaknesses this early. Buffalo proved to be a worthy opponent and we thank them for their time. On to Pitt. Let’s go State.

    2-0