This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Let’s talk moneylines and expected value, something that's essential to understand if you want to stand a chance at profiting off sports betting in the long run. Before I go into too much … Continue reading Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines
Tag: Elo Ratings
“Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day
Plus: A thought about 'Bama-Florida, and a 10% Vegas underdog 👀 Well that just happened… We ended up having some quality college football games—and even better weather—on Saturday. The sun was out, which meant double-TVs on the deck (had to watch the US Open women’s final too, of course!) And I watched another Pac-12 game, … Continue reading “Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day
Bowl Game Win Probabilities
Win probabilities for remaining bowl games, including the CFB Playoff Semifinal matchups and the rest of the New Year's Six bowl games. Home-field advantage adjustments were removed for these games. Elo win probabilities for all the upcoming bowl games.
Week 16 Win Probabilities
It's conference championship week. The most closely contested of the conference championship games is projected to be the Notre Dame-Clemson game for the ACC title. Let's check out who Elo likes in all this week's matchups. Please note that Washington was replaced with Oregon for the Pac-12 championship. USC's win probability for that game is … Continue reading Week 16 Win Probabilities
Week 15 Win Probabilities
We're in the final stretch. The regular season winds down this weekend and then it's conference championship time!
Week 13 Win Probabilities
We've got a long weekend of College Football ahead of us. Here's how Elo feels about these matchups as we get deeper into this crazy 2020 season.
Week 12 Win Probabilities
Get ready for the weekend and all the biggest matchups by reviewing Elo's win probabilities for Week 12 of the college football season. Week 12 college football Elo win probabilities
Week 10 Win Probabilities
Below are the win probabilities for Week 10. We've got a full slate of games for all Power-5 conferences as the Pac-12 returns, and we have several discrepancies between Elo and Vegas, particularly in the Pac-12 as things are just starting up. And Elo continues to like Navy for some reason. Hard pass on that … Continue reading Week 10 Win Probabilities
Big Ten Kickoff: Elo Rankings, Best Matchups + Strength and Difficulty of Schedule
With the Big Ten kicking off this Friday night with Illinois at Wisconsin, and then a full slate of games on Saturday, we thought we'd look at each team's position heading into Week 1 (Week 8 for everyone else). Below are the rankings from 1-14 based on preseason Elo rating. As you can tell, Ohio … Continue reading Big Ten Kickoff: Elo Rankings, Best Matchups + Strength and Difficulty of Schedule
2020 Preseason College Football Elo Ratings
Earlier this month, we introduced College Football Elo Ratings: our new take on the stat used to track the strength and head-to-head win probabilities of teams. Now we'll use it to rank every team and give a prediction on how many wins they'll achieve. Right now, we're including teams that will not be playing in … Continue reading 2020 Preseason College Football Elo Ratings