Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines

This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Let’s talk moneylines and expected value, something that's essential to understand if you want to stand a chance at profiting off sports betting in the long run. Before I go into too much … Continue reading Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines

“Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day

Plus: A thought about 'Bama-Florida, and a 10% Vegas underdog đź‘€ Well that just happened… We ended up having some quality college football games—and even better weather—on Saturday. The sun was out, which meant double-TVs on the deck (had to watch the US Open women’s final too, of course!) And I watched another Pac-12 game, … Continue reading “Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day

Week 16 Win Probabilities

It's conference championship week. The most closely contested of the conference championship games is projected to be the Notre Dame-Clemson game for the ACC title. Let's check out who Elo likes in all this week's matchups. Please note that Washington was replaced with Oregon for the Pac-12 championship. USC's win probability for that game is … Continue reading Week 16 Win Probabilities

Big Ten Kickoff: Elo Rankings, Best Matchups + Strength and Difficulty of Schedule

With the Big Ten kicking off this Friday night with Illinois at Wisconsin, and then a full slate of games on Saturday, we thought we'd look at each team's position heading into Week 1 (Week 8 for everyone else). Below are the rankings from 1-14 based on preseason Elo rating. As you can tell, Ohio … Continue reading Big Ten Kickoff: Elo Rankings, Best Matchups + Strength and Difficulty of Schedule

2020 Preseason College Football Elo Ratings

Earlier this month, we introduced College Football Elo Ratings: our new take on the stat used to track the strength and head-to-head win probabilities of teams. Now we'll use it to rank every team and give a prediction on how many wins they'll achieve. Right now, we're including teams that will not be playing in … Continue reading 2020 Preseason College Football Elo Ratings