Win probabilities for remaining bowl games, including the CFB Playoff Semifinal matchups and the rest of the New Year’s Six bowl games. Home-field advantage adjustments were removed for these games.
College Football Playoff
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Week 16 Elo Rankings
Well folks, after 15 weeks that felt like 30 weeks, we finally made it. Conference Championship week is here, and all five Power-5 conferences are hosting games. We’ll have those win probabilities up later this week, but for now, let’s see how the Elo rankings look after the regular season.
For more CFB Playoff analysis, subscribe to the Staturdays newsletter for weekly college football stats and insight straight to your inbox. I’ll be looking deeper into the Heisman trophy race this week.
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Week 15 Elo Rankings
After 14 weeks of college football, Elo has the same top 4 as the College Football Playoff Committee (in a slightly different order). After that, things look a bit different, notably with LSU at 5, who fell off significantly from last year’s National Championship team. With shortened seasons in some conferences, prior-year performance is still weighing pretty heavily on the placement of some teams with losing records.
In other news, Ohio State will play in the Big Ten championship after a change in the rule by the conference. With only five games played, a lot of what we’re inferring about their ability is based on their success last season. Northwestern will be their final chance to show off their explosive offense and try to shore up their defense, although a good defensive performance against Northwestern’s offense won’t be too convincing to most.
For more CFB Playoff analysis, subscribe to the Staturdays newsletter for weekly college football stats and insight straight to your inbox. I’ll be looking deeper into the playoff this week.
Staturdays 