Staturdays

College football betting

  • “Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day

    “Oh-🦆”– Ryan Day

    Plus: A thought about ‘Bama-Florida, and a 10% Vegas underdog đź‘€

    Well that just happened…

    We ended up having some quality college football games—and even better weather—on Saturday. The sun was out, which meant double-TVs on the deck (had to watch the US Open women’s final too, of course!) And I watched another Pac-12 game, this time against the Big Ten, so two halves make a whole!

    I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong on two fronts last week.

    First, Ohio State did indeed have to worry about the Oregon Ducks, despite their 89.4% win probability, which, as we know, is nowhere near a certainty.

    Second, the Week 2 slate was not weak. Well, it was, but not if you watched all the right games and ignored whatever was going on down in the SEC.

    Wow, that was so brave of me.

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    The Buckeyes made it look close at the end, but it never felt close. Oregon controlled the game on both sides, first—it felt like—on defense, holding OSU to a touchdown in the first half. And then in the second half, with an explosive offense that ran past OSU defenders.

    And the run-game is what set the two teams apart. According to collegefootballdata.com, Oregon running back CJ Verdell averaged .38 Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play, while Miyan Williams for OSU managed only .07. The QBs were both productive, with .38 PPA for C.J. Stroud and .41 for Anthony Brown. So no Stroud slander just yet. The Buckeyes’ issues run deeper.

    Drew was working on our in-game win probability model last weekend, and found that we were very low on Ohio State’s chances at the half, even though they were only down 7!

    Near the end of the game, our model shifted sentiment, giving Ohio State a 69% chance to pull out the win. We’re not exactly sure what changed, but Ohio State were indeed in it down to the wire. There are still plenty of kinks to work out, but it was interesting to see the big swings as the game progressed.

    In other big Week 2 results, Iowa upset Iowa State (although is 10 beating 9 really an upset?), unranked Stanford walloped #14 USC and cost Clay Helton the keys to his program, and Arkansas did the same to #15 Texas, giving them a taste of what the SEC-life might be like in a few years. If they struggled to find success in the Big-12 after being “back” for the last four years, it’s gonna take a few decades of being “back” in the SEC before they see any success in that conference.

    Oh, and Virginia Tech beat Middle Tennessee. What’d I tell you? Easy money.

    Rumors Swirling

    With Clay Helton’s firing, that special time of year is coming early this fall, and will unfortunately stick with us all season: who will be the next coach of USC? Unsurprisingly, James Franklin’s name was one of the first to be thrown out there. I’ll squash this rumor here and now by asking the simple question… why? Why would Franklin want to leave what he’s got in Happy Valley? He has the #1 recruiting class for 2022 (USC’s is 29th, for now…), the #12 class for 2023 (USC is not ranked), a top-10 football program right now, and the 7th highest salary in college football, which more than covers the cost of living in central Pennsylvania.

    And now, my “only conceivable reasons for anyone to want to go to USC” list:

    – In-N-Out

    – Getting a sick tan

    – Putting avocado on everything you eat

    And these are easily outweighed by fires, mudslides, and running out of water all the time. So keep looking, USC.

    Coming Soon

    I’m working on an article about quarterbacks and interceptions. Namely, how do quarterbacks play after throwing one? Are they rattled? Do they become more conservative? More accurate? We’re going to find out, and see who cracks under pressure, and who balls out in the face of adversity. Be on the lookout for that article to kickoff your Saturday morning.

    I don’t have much to share with you, but for now here are the most-benched quarterbacks since 2014 after throwing an interception.

    Week 3 (already?)

    It’s the final week of non-conference play (kinda). And thankfully, we have some teams challenging themselves this weekend. Highlighted by none other than Auburn vs. Penn State in a primetime White Out game. Elo has Penn State as slight favorites at 60.8% win probability in this matchup, but it could go either way.

    Below are the win probabilities for the Power-5 teams, and, where appropriate (or inappropriate), my commentary. If you’re looking for Group of 5 games, check out staturdays.com.

    Big Ten

    Nebraska playing Oklahoma this weekend is exactly like when you sign up for the marathon a year ahead of time hoping that you’ll be in shape by the time the race comes around. As is usually the case, Nebraska will be puking on the sidewalk 3 miles in, and might duck into a Porta-Potty, take off their race bib, and try to blend back into the crowd.

    But in all seriousness, we have a lot of other competitive games this weekend.

    ACC

    Virginia Tech @ West Virginia looks like the game to watch here, and keep an eye on Virginia, who is underestimated by Vegas by over 10 percentage points compared to Elo đź‘€.

    Big-12

    Pac-12

    I will not blame you if you don’t watch any Pac-12 football this weekend. It’s okay.

    SEC

    Florida have more of a chance to beat Alabama than Oregon did to Ohio State last week, and are underdogs by about just as much. Think about that.

    Think about it… don’t act on it.

    That’s all I’ve got for you. Enjoy your weekends and remember to check out my article this weekend!

    – Kyle

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  • The Caboose of the Boilermakers

    We are coming up on another homecoming week in Happy Valley this Saturday, October 5th. The Boilermakers of Purdue are limping their way to State College to face off against the Nittany Lions for the 19th time in their competitive history. Penn State holds a 14-3-1 all-time record against Purdue and are strong favorites to get that 15th win. As of Monday, Penn State is favored by four touchdowns – a large margin, that to be honest, is likely modest.

    The other day during a press conference, Purdue Head Coach Jeff Brohm told media that 6 of his players would not be playing in the game due to injury. These include: starting QB and promising athlete Elijah Sindelar, DT Lorenzo Neal, WR Jared Sparks, backup RBs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship, and most importantly, superstar in the making, all-purpose WR Rondale Moore.

    These injuries are bound to do massive damage to whatever offensive attack Purdue wants to implement against Penn State on Saturday. Most teams would not be able to survive their QB, 2 RBs, and a WR all out for the same game – but Purdue especially, who relies on Moore and Sindelar to execute (basically anything), does not look favorable this weekend.

    Elijah Sindelar, the senior QB, was having a great start to his season; in just three games:

    • he was completing 64.3% of his passes for about 1000 yards
    • he had 9 TDs and 3 INTs
    • he was able to run in another TD

    Their backup QB (who PSU will face Saturday) has not been nearly as good, only completing 51.4% of his passes for 3 TDs and 4 INTs, reminiscent of Kyle’s long-lost Heisman darkhorse D’Eriq King. Losing your starting QB is always going to be a tough hill to climb, but the absence of Rondale Moore is much more damning for Purdue. This kid is a superstar and if you don’t want to take my word for it just check out his highlight reel against Ohio State in 2018. His freshman year he caught 114 passes and put up nearly 1500 scrimmage yards with 14 TDs. This year there was more than plenty of Heisman buzz about him and led Purdue with 29 receptions and 390 scrimmage yards. These two playmakers are the heart and soul of this offense and without them Purdue will surely struggle to move the ball against a stout Penn State defense in Happy Valley in front of a homecoming crowd.

    I predict that Penn State will win this game without much controversy. Coming off of a strong momentum building game in Maryland, the #LawnBoyz will be ready to stomp the Boilermakers and their weird mascot.

    The betting line for this game is Penn State -28.0 and 55.5. For those who don’t know, that means the total points scored between both teams is meant to be 55-56 and Penn State is supposed to win by 28 points. Basically Vegas is predicting a 42-14 win for Penn State. I think the score will more resemble something along the lines of 49-3. The parlay (combined odds of multiple bets) of choosing Penn State to win by more than 28 and for the score to be less than 55.5 is +440. These odds essentially work out as such, if you bet $100 on said parlay and win – you will receive a total of $440. I put down some of my own money on this parlay because I really do think that Purdue will have an immensely hard time scoring points. Following my logic, this would allow PSU to win by more than 28 and not allow more than 55 points to score (Staturdays can not be held responsible for your gambling losses, however may be entitled to fair compensation for your profits. LLC, all rights reserved, yada yada.)

    Outside of the game lines themselves, there are a few things to watch for going into the 5th game of the season:

    • Any true-freshman who has played snaps in all 4 previous games will burn their Red Shirt if they do get playing time.
      • Players like LBs Lance Dixon and Brandon Smith, DBs Jaquan Brisker and Keaton Ellis, OL Caedan Wallace, and RBs Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have all played 4 games already in their true-freshman year. If they do play against Purdue, they will have officially burned their Red Shirt. It is safe to say that Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have earned playing time all season – but we will wait to see who else will be year-long contributors.
    • Micah Parsons coming back with a vengeance.
      • LBs and DLs had a feast on the Maryland offense last Saturday, but unfortunately due to a targeting penalty – Micah Parsons sat most of the game. I expect him to come back hungry against Purdue this week. Don’t be surprised if Micah puts up a multi-sack game or maybe even forces a fumble or two.
    • Clarity among the RB situation.
      • We are coming to the time now where either a hierarchy of RBs will emerge or a true rotation will be the situation going forward. Journey Brown has earned the starting role but really is more or less splitting time with the other backs. They all have proven their worth be it in the run or the passing game. After this game we will have a clearer look into the future of this teams RB situation heading into the more competitive part of the schedule.
    • Another career game for Sean Clifford?
      • Purdue’s defense has been gashed in the passing game so far this season, letting up 295 passing yards to Nevada, 420 to Vanderbilt, and 396 to Minnesota. If Purdue struggled to get pressure on Nevada’s Carson Strong and allowed him to nearly clip 300 passing yards and 3 TDs – what will Clifford be able to accomplish?

    All in all, these are some exciting times for Penn State. Fans should head to Beaver Stadium confident on Saturday and should hope for a nice comfortable win. There is a tough road game ahead, but we can only look at the game currently on the schedule. Let’s go win game number five. We Are.

    4-0.