Staturdays

Sports

  • Mahomes Isn’t The Only One Flag-Baiting

    Mahomes Isn’t The Only One Flag-Baiting

    There was a lot of noise this weekend—and rightly so—about Patrick Mahomes baiting defenders into late hits in hopes of drawing flags. He was able to get one early on in the game, but didn’t fool the refs later on when he loitered on the edge of the boundary and then flopped out of bounds once defenders arrived.

    For a lot of fans, I think the frustration came fast because it was reminiscent of another moment earlier in the season when Mahomes drew a foul on another (questionably) late hit.

    This was in the 3rd quarter:

    And then the no-call in the 4th quarter:

    This was a similar play that went viral earlier in the season where Mahomes danced near the sidelines and turned it into a big gain:

    To be fair to Mahomes, there were many more examples (just search “Patrick Mahomes late hit” on your favorite social media platform) throughout the season where flags were not thrown for hits near the sideline.

    Interestingly, if you search the same terms with “Josh Allen”—probably the second most popular quarterback in the NFL—it returns a lot less results. So it does seem like Mahomes is a bit of an anomaly due to his outsized celebrity (maybe from all the State Farm commercials).

    But I did want to try to find out if there was truly some bias towards Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in general when it comes to these late hit fouls. So I took a look at the play-by-play data from nflfastR and FTN Data via nflverse, which charts certain movement data like whether a QB went outside the pocket.

    Before we begin, there are two terms to define here. A QB scramble is defined by nflverse and is always a run play. It’s basically anytime a pass turns into a QB run. The QB being out of the pocket is anytime the QB exits the pocket.

    A QB scramble almost always means the QB is out of the pocket, but a QB being out of the pocket does not imply a QB scramble. In fact, a QB being out-of-the-pocket is a pass 68% of the time to a run 24% of the time, and is a QB scramble 25% of the time.

    The base dataset is all plays where a penalty was called on the defense that were not interceptions or fumbles lost.

    First off, I looked at unnecessary roughness and roughing the passer penalties specifically since these are the two penalties commonly called for late or illegal hits. According to the NFL rulebook, roughing the passer can be called inside or outside the pocket. If a QB is outside the pocket and on the move, they are allowed to be hit low or high (unlike when they are in the pocket), however if they stop moving and return to a “passing posture”, they can no longer be hit low or high again.

    The findings were interesting. Looking at plays where the QB was out of the pocket, Buffalo actually led the way with five unnecessary roughness or roughing the passer calls on the defense. KC only had one recorded.

    Unsurprisingly, some of the teams leading the way in this area have very dynamic, mobile quarterbacks: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Justin Fields/Russell Wilson. However, the numbers are pretty low overall so far.

    Of course, the data is not perfect. There may be calls missed and charting data on in vs. out of the pocket is not always reliable either, plus it’s not guaranteed that the unnecessary roughness calls were called for hits on the quarterback. But we can still learn a lot from the general trends.

    Let’s cut the data a few more ways. First, let’s normalize for how many out-of-pocket plays a team has to see who’s getting the most calls proportional to the number of rollouts they do.

    All the below plots will be looking at the roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness calls only.

    Buffalo still leads the way on penalty calls when the QB is out of the pocket on a per-play basis, averaging about .3 penalty yards per out-of-pocket play, or about a call every 50 rollouts. As you can see, KC is near the bottom in this category.

    When we look at totals, the result is mostly the same. However, we’re only looking at one or two calls per team. Note that it is possible for the penalty to be less than 15 yards in both cases because they can be called within 15 yards of the goal line.

    Next, let’s look at QB scrambles where the QB becomes a runner. At this point, we shouldn’t see any roughing the passer calls but will still see the unnecessary roughness calls for late hits. There’s a lot less data here; there were only 10 unnecessary roughness calls out of 1181 QB scramble plays.

    Minnesota and Arizona both drew two of these penalties while the other teams had one. KC is notably not on this list (although please fact check me here because, as I said, the data may not be perfect. I was able to find two instances but they occurred on turnovers.)

    Last, let’s take off all the reigns and look at these two penalties across all plays, including those where the QB stays in the pocket.

    Here, Miami creep up as a big beneficiary of these calls (is Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history playing a factor here, perhaps?). Again, the Chiefs are very middle of the road here, showing no evidence of favoring Mahomes.

    On a total yardage view, there isn’t much change.

    Just for fun, let’s see who’s getting the most flags called against their opposing defense overall, without any filters on turnovers or penalty types.

    Here, we see that Minnesota, Washington, Dallas, and Buffalo drew the most penalties while Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Detroit drew the least.

    While this is interesting, nothing really stands out and the distribution of penalties across the teams is fairly normal.

    So, to summarize, I think that fans have a short memory and also a memory that highlights the moments and players that are most infuriating and impactful to the result of the game. Patrick Mahomes is a world-class player and he’s on TV all the time. He’s also had some moments that have been A) on national television or B) gone viral where he has seemingly flopped or earned a call from the refs that was undeserved.

    That being said, I found no evidence in any of the data that the Chiefs get any more calls than other teams. In fact, they rank near the middle or bottom of most of the charts above.

    I agree that the NFL does need to figure out how to regulate the “QB as a runner” situation a bit better, because it is hugely disadvantageous to the defense when quarterbacks get these special protections near the boundaries that other players seem not to get. Whether it’s actually the case that these calls are made more often on quarterback runners than other runners is a whole other investigation (a quick glance gives me the impression that this is not actually the case).

  • Norris Qatar Grand Prix Throttle Trace Analysis

    Norris Qatar Grand Prix Throttle Trace Analysis

    At the Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday, an errant side mirror from the Williams ended up on the front straight, causing some brief yellow flags that Norris did not heed to, resulting in a 10-second stop-and-go penalty and effectively ending his day.

    Let’s take a look at the data and see what actually happened.

    A wing mirror sits in the middle of the straight as Perez and Hamilton drive by.

    First, lets look at the normal braking points for reference. This was the lap before the yellow, lap 29:

    Between 600-650 meters is the normal braking point.

    Now lets look at the next lap, focusing on the top drivers who actually saw the yellow flag—remember, the yellow flag only came out for a moment, and then was removed for several laps until the mirror was run over by Bottas.

    Here we see that the flag actually came out late into the straight for Max, who throttled down almost 200 meters before normal. Norris was further back down the straight and did not lift, and Leclerc (who was behind Piastri, not shown) lifted a quite early, throttled back up, then down again.

    Piastri was right behind Norris and lifted very early, while Sainz was behind Leclerc and throttled down about 100 meters early. And by the time Perez came around, the flags were gone.

    By these traces, it’s clear that Norris was the heaviest infringer here. So I’d say a penalty was warranted. However, a few questions remain.

    First, what’s considered sufficient slowing for a yellow flag? Verstappen lifted completely, while Leclerc lifted slightly and seemed unsure of where to continue on, and Sainz went through the majority of the flag area at full throttle and lifted near the actual debris.

    And second, why was the yellow flag rescinded with no change in the situation? If the mirror was deemed hazardous, then every driver should have been made to lift in that section (or more reasonably, a VSC should have been deployed to keep the field even until the piece was removed).

    This issue was clear as day and folks at home could have reacted in an instant, but it took the race director six laps to decide what to do, and it was only prompted by Bottas hitting the debris and two punctures coming at the same time.

    Just to emphasize the differences, here’s the speed differences of the Top 6 going into turn 1 on Lap 30, and as you can see Norris is just well ahead of the rest of the field (although I should note that the rest of the field, with maybe Max as the exception, were all going almost 300 kph through the majority of the straight until the actual debris point.)

  • How F1 Can Keep Monaco Relevant

    How F1 Can Keep Monaco Relevant

    Monaco has always been the most prestigious event in all of motorsport. It shares a weekend with the Indy 500, known as the Greatest Spectacle in Motorsport, and it makes up one-third of the Triple Crown of Motorsport, which also includes the 24 Hours of Le Mans. This past weekend, however, there was little argument to be had that this event should continue to be mentioned in the same breath as the others.

    While the 500 reaffirmed its claim to its prized title, the Monaco Grand Prix has fallen from grace. Maybe not for the celebrities and honorable guests that attend the party in person, but for the millions around the world who watch on TV—and for the drivers themselves.

    What Happened

    This year, a first-lap red flag threw any element of strategy out the window when most teams decided to change tires under red onto the hard tire and take them to the finish line, fulfilling their two-tire compound requirement. Leclerc led every lap and won handily, and there was never a moment where the result was in any doubt. (To be fair, you could say that about most F1 races for the past two seasons.)

    To add insult to injury, Ferrari and Sainz were handed a gift via an F1 rules technicality. After Sainz picked up a puncture at the exit of turn 1 and then couldn’t get the car turned in at turn 4, the red flag put him back into 3rd again for the restart since the flag came out before all cars made it through sector 1. Despite all common sense indicating that he should be at the back of the field, F1 rules trumped reason as they commonly do.

    After the race, sentiment on social media was poor. However, perhaps more concerning for F1 and Monaco were the references to just how boring the race was by the commentary teams and the drivers themselves.

    When the drivers are struggling to stay entertained when they’re the ones in the freaking race, how can you expect the fans thousands of miles away to be excited or engaged?

    Trending the Wrong Way

    Monaco wasn’t always this boring. In the past decade of races (9 races), 44% of pole-sitters won, there was an average of less than 1 lead change per race, and the average starting position of the winner was 1.8.

    From 1995-2004 (10 races), the pole-sitter won just 20% of races, there were an average of 2.5 lead changes per race, and the average starting position of the eventual winner was 3.2. However, there was a big outlier in 96. Without that, the average starting position was 2, fairly similar to today’s average.

    As you can see, starting position of the winner is heavily influenced by one outlier.

    Common Sense Fixes

    While no changes can guarantee a better race on such a narrow, low-speed circuit, it became clear this year that something has to be done. Doing nothing at this point would be negligent and outright disrespectful to the fans.

    Max Verstappen and George Russell offered their tongue-in-cheek solutions in their post-race interviews, suggesting “5 mandatory pit stops”, “refueling”, “one lap on foot”, and a “mandatory nap”.

    Lewis Hamilton also suggested adding mandatory pitstops.

    I think there are some general rule changes that could benefit every race—not just Monaco—as well as some changes that they could make to the Monaco format itself, such as the addition of mandatory stops or extra-soft compounds with higher degradation.

    Tire changes under red don’t satisfy the two-compound rule

    This one is the most obvious to me, and seems to be a point of agreement among broadcasters and fans alike, but changing your tires under a red flag should not mean that you are allowed to go the whole race without stopping. Maybe they need to rethink the rule entirely and make it a mandatory pitstop rule rather than a mandatory two-compound rule. I believe that would better reflect the spirit of the rule. Or do both: one mandatory stop and two mandatory tire compounds. The more decisions that a team needs to make and the more opportunities for various strategies to take hold, the better for the sport.

    Add more official timing sectors to determine order

    Only the three official sectors, plus the two safety car lines are used for determining order under red-flag conditions.

    While McLaren boss Andreas Siedel admitted after Monaco that he still doesn’t think mini-sectors are the appropriate answer, I think there’s a compromise to be made to get more granular positions updated more frequently throughout the lap, without compromising accuracy—a common counter to using mini-sectors.

    A map of the current Monaco Circuit.

    The main argument against mini-sectors, as explained by this Reddit poster, is that some of them are positioned in such a way that a driver could overshoot or even cut a corner and be “ahead” in a mini-sector, but truly behind if the next mini-sector or two were played out. The user continues, claiming that sectors are chosen in places to prevent that from happening, where cars are typically strung out in single-file.

    However, if you look at the Monaco circuit, sector 1 ends in the run down to turn 5, a braking zone where exactly what regular sectors purport to prevent could indeed happen if someone overran the braking point and hit the runoff area: they would find themselves “ahead” at the end of sector 1 but well behind the pack by the time they got spun around.

    While three sectors is fine for television, the race stewards should have several more sectors at their disposal for timing decisions. Here’s a simple proposal for a modified map at Monaco. You’ll notice that most of the points occur at or near already naturally-occurring spots on the track, such as the tunnel speed trap or DRS detection zone.

    A proposal for additional timing sectors.

    You could easily add more without compromising the integrity of the timing, especially at a street circuit like Monaco where there are very few areas to cut corners (we wouldn’t want a sector to be anywhere near the 10-11 chicane for that reason).

    Use common sense

    This one is vague, but any fan watching the race knew that Sainz deserved to be at the back of the field after that mistake. But the stewards opted to go by the book and reinstate him to 3rd. This is where some steward judgement needs to come in to set things right. Perhaps some lawyer can word this better than me, but if you clearly go off on your own accord and the field passes you by, then you should be at the back of the pack on the restart. Which leads me to my final point.

    Let the TV broadcast aid timing decisions

    I’d argue you should even use the TV broadcast as a point of reference like every other major sport does these days. Sync the video to timing and see how many cars had passed by Sainz at the moment the red flag came back out. Then determine his position based on that info. If for some reason it’s so close that you can’t clearly tell from TV, then leave things as is or resort to sector timings. But if it’s “clear and obvious”, then by all means let’s get it right.