Sports

  • How F1 Can Keep Monaco Relevant

    How F1 Can Keep Monaco Relevant

    Monaco has always been the most prestigious event in all of motorsport. It shares a weekend with the Indy 500, known as the Greatest Spectacle in Motorsport, and it makes up one-third of the Triple Crown of Motorsport, which also includes the 24 Hours of Le Mans. This past weekend, however, there was little argument to be had that this event should continue to be mentioned in the same breath as the others.

    While the 500 reaffirmed its claim to its prized title, the Monaco Grand Prix has fallen from grace. Maybe not for the celebrities and honorable guests that attend the party in person, but for the millions around the world who watch on TV—and for the drivers themselves.

    What Happened

    This year, a first-lap red flag threw any element of strategy out the window when most teams decided to change tires under red onto the hard tire and take them to the finish line, fulfilling their two-tire compound requirement. Leclerc led every lap and won handily, and there was never a moment where the result was in any doubt. (To be fair, you could say that about most F1 races for the past two seasons.)

    To add insult to injury, Ferrari and Sainz were handed a gift via an F1 rules technicality. After Sainz picked up a puncture at the exit of turn 1 and then couldn’t get the car turned in at turn 4, the red flag put him back into 3rd again for the restart since the flag came out before all cars made it through sector 1. Despite all common sense indicating that he should be at the back of the field, F1 rules trumped reason as they commonly do.

    After the race, sentiment on social media was poor. However, perhaps more concerning for F1 and Monaco were the references to just how boring the race was by the commentary teams and the drivers themselves.

    When the drivers are struggling to stay entertained when they’re the ones in the freaking race, how can you expect the fans thousands of miles away to be excited or engaged?

    Trending the Wrong Way

    Monaco wasn’t always this boring. In the past decade of races (9 races), 44% of pole-sitters won, there was an average of less than 1 lead change per race, and the average starting position of the winner was 1.8.

    From 1995-2004 (10 races), the pole-sitter won just 20% of races, there were an average of 2.5 lead changes per race, and the average starting position of the eventual winner was 3.2. However, there was a big outlier in 96. Without that, the average starting position was 2, fairly similar to today’s average.

    As you can see, starting position of the winner is heavily influenced by one outlier.

    Common Sense Fixes

    While no changes can guarantee a better race on such a narrow, low-speed circuit, it became clear this year that something has to be done. Doing nothing at this point would be negligent and outright disrespectful to the fans.

    Max Verstappen and George Russell offered their tongue-in-cheek solutions in their post-race interviews, suggesting “5 mandatory pit stops”, “refueling”, “one lap on foot”, and a “mandatory nap”.

    Lewis Hamilton also suggested adding mandatory pitstops.

    I think there are some general rule changes that could benefit every race—not just Monaco—as well as some changes that they could make to the Monaco format itself, such as the addition of mandatory stops or extra-soft compounds with higher degradation.

    Tire changes under red don’t satisfy the two-compound rule

    This one is the most obvious to me, and seems to be a point of agreement among broadcasters and fans alike, but changing your tires under a red flag should not mean that you are allowed to go the whole race without stopping. Maybe they need to rethink the rule entirely and make it a mandatory pitstop rule rather than a mandatory two-compound rule. I believe that would better reflect the spirit of the rule. Or do both: one mandatory stop and two mandatory tire compounds. The more decisions that a team needs to make and the more opportunities for various strategies to take hold, the better for the sport.

    Add more official timing sectors to determine order

    Only the three official sectors, plus the two safety car lines are used for determining order under red-flag conditions.

    While McLaren boss Andreas Siedel admitted after Monaco that he still doesn’t think mini-sectors are the appropriate answer, I think there’s a compromise to be made to get more granular positions updated more frequently throughout the lap, without compromising accuracy—a common counter to using mini-sectors.

    A map of the current Monaco Circuit.

    The main argument against mini-sectors, as explained by this Reddit poster, is that some of them are positioned in such a way that a driver could overshoot or even cut a corner and be “ahead” in a mini-sector, but truly behind if the next mini-sector or two were played out. The user continues, claiming that sectors are chosen in places to prevent that from happening, where cars are typically strung out in single-file.

    However, if you look at the Monaco circuit, sector 1 ends in the run down to turn 5, a braking zone where exactly what regular sectors purport to prevent could indeed happen if someone overran the braking point and hit the runoff area: they would find themselves “ahead” at the end of sector 1 but well behind the pack by the time they got spun around.

    While three sectors is fine for television, the race stewards should have several more sectors at their disposal for timing decisions. Here’s a simple proposal for a modified map at Monaco. You’ll notice that most of the points occur at or near already naturally-occurring spots on the track, such as the tunnel speed trap or DRS detection zone.

    A proposal for additional timing sectors.

    You could easily add more without compromising the integrity of the timing, especially at a street circuit like Monaco where there are very few areas to cut corners (we wouldn’t want a sector to be anywhere near the 10-11 chicane for that reason).

    Use common sense

    This one is vague, but any fan watching the race knew that Sainz deserved to be at the back of the field after that mistake. But the stewards opted to go by the book and reinstate him to 3rd. This is where some steward judgement needs to come in to set things right. Perhaps some lawyer can word this better than me, but if you clearly go off on your own accord and the field passes you by, then you should be at the back of the pack on the restart. Which leads me to my final point.

    Let the TV broadcast aid timing decisions

    I’d argue you should even use the TV broadcast as a point of reference like every other major sport does these days. Sync the video to timing and see how many cars had passed by Sainz at the moment the red flag came back out. Then determine his position based on that info. If for some reason it’s so close that you can’t clearly tell from TV, then leave things as is or resort to sector timings. But if it’s “clear and obvious”, then by all means let’s get it right.

  • IndyCar Poised for A Breakthrough Season

    IndyCar Poised for A Breakthrough Season

    When F1 defiantly denied Andretti’s bid to enter the series, it rubbed a lot of open-wheel race fans the wrong way, not only in the US but abroad.

    Then, F1’s season-opener in Bahrain put fans to sleep, with only 10-cars finishing on the lead lap, Verstappen finishing 22 seconds ahead of the field (or rather his teammate; the field was 25 seconds behind), and no cars within one second of each other at the line.

    Now, Red Bull’s Christian Horner is embroiled in scandal, and the FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem is under investigation for tampering with a stewards’ decision last season. While some people may love the off-track drama, others may be tired of the “circus” that is F1, where more action occurs off the track than on it.

    Luckily for fans, Indycar awaits just around the corner this weekend. Race fans eager for some on-track action as well as uncertainty in the outcome should be chomping at the bit to tune in.

    Competitiveness and Driver Appeal

    The health of the IndyCar series is as good as ever. There were 10 different pole-winners and 7 race-winners in 2023, plus 16 different podium finishers. Alex Palou and Josef Newgarden took the major share of wins, but the series is also full of exciting young talents—Pato O’Ward, Scott McLaughlin, Colton Herta, and Kyle Kirkwood to name a few—and legendary veterans like Scott Dixon and Will Power that are still competing for both wins and championships. The series also brings the legitimacy of F1 in guys like Romain Grosjean and Marcus Ericsson with their experience in both series.

    The series strikes the right balance of international representation from Mexico to New Zealand to Sweden while still showcasing plenty of young American racing talents.

    Sustainability Focus

    They introduced the sustainably sourced “guayule” green-walled Firestone tires to the series, which just bolsters their sustainability efforts that took a huge leap forward with the biofuel they too quietly used to power the cars in 2023. Now in 2024, they’ll introduce the hybrid assist unit, which will come into play after the Indy 500 and also bring about more power for the drivers to pass with when deployed.

    Media Exposure

    To top it all off, IndyCar is more present on television than ever before. In 2023, NBC broadcast 15 races on NBC, 3 on USA network, and 1 race exclusively on Peacock. 100 Days To Indy aired on the CW, and returns for season 2 this spring, giving fans that behind-the-curtain look at the drivers and their lives that sports and reality TV fans alike are expecting these days. NBC has done a great job giving fans access to other sessions as well directly on Peacock and having the A-Team cover it, and they’ve been responsive to problems and suggestions from fans throughout the season, with Townsend Bell often going to Twitter and asking fans directly for feedback on the broadcast on the plane ride home after the race.

    There will be 12 NBC races this year, 6 USA races, and 2 Peacock races this season. With Peacock seeing subscriber growth from the NFL playoff game this year, and people being more accustomed to watching TV across multiple apps generally, we’ll see if Peacock becomes less of a friction point for fans.

    St. Pete Outlook

    St. Pete should be entertaining for fans, with opportunities for anyone in at least the top 10 to win. The average winner started 6th, and there were 7 lead changes on average per race.

    As with any street course, there’s also the chance for fireworks, with an average of 3.5 cautions for 16 laps.

    In the past 10 years, qualifying on pole only give you a slight edge, with two of the past ten winners coming from the pole position.

    With F1 fumbling their new Netflix-generated audience with every misstep they make, Indycar is poised to capture some of those fans that want the excitement of open-wheel racing that F1 has failed to deliver on.

    Qualifying starts at 2PM eastern on March 9th on Peacock, and the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg kicks off the IndyCar season on NBC at 12 PM eastern on March 10th.

  • Pebble Beach Weather Leads to Favorable Odds

    Pebble Beach Weather Leads to Favorable Odds

    I just recently started following the PGA Tour, and even more recently started dabbling in betting on golf.

    Thankfully, there’s a site called datagolf.com—probably one of the greatest sports statistics and betting sites I’ve come across—which makes it very accessible to get started. They offer live finishing odds for every player in every tournament. For paid subscribers, they even offer betting tools and expected values for various bets using live odds from popular sportsbooks. This makes it really easy to evaluate bets in realtime. (The PGA Tour site, on the other hand, is one of the worst and most poorly-organized sites for stat nerds I’ve ever used.)

    The bet I was following on Saturday was the leader Wyndham Clark’s odds of winning. He had a two-stroke lead on the field, which by the end of the round was down to one stroke to second and two-strokes to third.

    My philosophy so far has been to put more trust in the players who have been there before as opposed to the newcomers. Whether this is valid or not is to be determined. And Clark, just this past season, had won his first two pro tournaments. Second place Ludvig Åberg had four wins, but just one on the PGA tour, and third place Matthieu Pavon had just one win as well. Further bolstering my confidence was the fact the Clark was playing great golf, posting a 60 in the third round. Perhaps I was falling into the hot-hand fallacy, if that exists in golf.

    At the end of the third round, datagolf had Clark’s odds around 29% to win. DraftKings was offering him to win at +200 (33% implied probability). This initally looked like a negative expected value (EV) bet.

    Now, my impression of his play that day, his previous experience, and who he was up against bolstered my internal odds to about 33%. But there was one element that was not factored into either of these odds yet: the elements.

    The weather forecast for Sunday was dire, with heavy storms throughout the day not expected to let up until the late afternoon. There was a chance they would postpone until Monday, but there was also the chance that the tournament would be suspended entirely. It seemed almost certain that they wouldn’t play on Sunday, but whether or not they would cancel I had no way to know. However, I knew it was at least a possibility, meaning I should bump my internal odds up higher still, turning this into a positive EV bet.

    If there was a 33% chance of Clark winning if they played, and a 100% chance of him winning if they cancelled, and a 25% chance that they cancelled, then his win probability should really have been around 50%! This turns into a high EV bet. It appeared that DraftKings, and possibly other sports books, didn’t account for weather and early cancellations in their odds models.

    A probability tree of the possible outcomes for Clark if they played or if they cancelled the final round.

    Even if you disagree with my upping the initial odds from 29%, as long as you agree with at least a four percent chance of cancellation given the weather forecast, that puts positive EV on the +200 odds.

    At 33% implied odds and 50% actual odds on the current leader, DraftKings was essentially offering people free money.

    It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on weather-affected tournaments in the future to see if they’ve learned anything from this situation.