Staturdays

Heisman

  • Predicting the Heisman Winner After Kyle Trask’s 3-Interception Loss

    Kyle Trask was a “shoe”-in for Heisman. Now the shoe is on the other foot (Mac Jones’s).

    The name Kyle had gotten a bad rap in the last year. People think that all we do is drink Monsters and pop wheelies on our ATVs with our cousins at the campground. Kyle Trask was supposed to show the world that us Kyles are so much more. That we could be Heisman-winners and SEC champions too. Not so fast my friend.

    I cannot understate enough how consequential a single shoe has become to not only Kyle Trask’s Heisman campaign, but also Florida’s shot at a College Football Playoff spot.

    For those of you who have no clue what I’m talking about (doubtful, but possible), it’s probably easiest if you just watch this video.

    Let’s start with the latter: Florida were unlikely to beat Alabama as it were, with Elo giving them around a 20% chance to win the game (with the LSU loss). Had they done that, they’d easily be in the College Football Playoff. Now, it’s unclear if a two-loss Florida could get in regardless of the result of this game, unless they had a performance so dominant against the best team in the nation that it couldn’t possibly be a fluke. That is even less likely than them winning by any margin.

    Now the Heisman. Trask was a 52% favorite to win the Heisman last week. After a 3-interception loss, Kyle Trask dropped all the way to 11% odds (+800). Mac Jones went to the 66% favorite, followed by Devonta Smith at 33%. We’ve been working on a model to predict Heisman winners for the past two weeks using a few data sources from collegefootballdata.com. As of last week, Kyle Trask had the best odds to be the Heisman winner. Now, Jones has closed the gap.

    The two major stats that were negatively affected by that LSU loss were team record (8-2) and interceptions thrown (+3). Only one of those two is significant to determining the Heisman winner: team record.

    We built our model using data from 2004 through 2019, pairing up the most common passing, rushing, and receiving stats for each player with the eventual Heisman winner. This is inherently tricky because a Heisman winner is inherently rare. Out of about 42,000 player-season combos, there can only be 17 Heisman winners in that span. Despite that, we did a decent job of getting some fairly accurate Heisman odds historically, and the winner of the Heisman was the player with the highest odds in our model 11 out of 17 years.

    The most important and significant factors that determined whether a player might win the Heisman ended up being:

    • The team’s winning percentage in the regular season
    • A player’s rushing yards relative to others at their position in that season
    • Total Touchdowns per Game (it should be noted that total touchdowns for the season were pretty much equally significant, but since this season is shortened for some teams, we opted for the per-game stat)

    Interestingly, our model still did better at identifying true Heisman candidates when we included more variables, even if they were statistically insignificant. Some of the variables we left in despite their perceived unimportance were:

    • interceptions per game
    • player position
    • total yards per game
    • Power Five conference indicator

    The inclusion of these extra variables sniffed out a few clear outliers that weren’t even in consideration, namely the Cincinnati QB and RB, who have put up large numbers, but are not in a Power 5 conference, a defining characteristic of previous Heisman winners (despite that, P5 conference was still considered insignificant on its own, likely because so many Power 5 players do not win the Heisman each year, while many players who score 50+ touchdowns do (six out of 15, to be specific).

    Cincy QB Desmond Ridder also threw .75 interceptions per game this year, a seemingly insignificant amount, but not when Fields, Trask, and Jones average .6, .5, and .3, respectively. It’s a tough world out there these days.

    The results were fairly promising. Like I said, there are only 16 winners, and thousands of losers each season, so most players are going to have an essentially 0% chance of winning the Heisman. But when we look at the top 5 players in terms of Heisman probability each season, we see that the actual winner did in fact have much higher odds then the next four runner-ups, showing that our model is on the right track.

    So the actual Heisman winner usually had the highest win probability to win the award on average, while the runner-ups came in around 12% probability.

    Here is a look at how total TDs correspond to the probabilities to win the Heisman that our model gives.

    This stat is clearly most important with QBs, as many of the Heisman-winning QBs had total TDs in the upper 40s or lower 50s. Matt Leinart and Troy Smith were two exceptions, with Leinart having the lowest predicted win probability of the players we looked at, undoubtedly helped by being the QB on an undefeated USC team that year.

    So who are the Heisman favorites in our model this year?

    The top five this year are:

    1. Justin Fields (25.8% chance)
    2. Kyle Trask (19.9%)
    3. Mac Jones (17.3%)
    4. Najee Harris (14.4%)
    5. Kedon Slovis (6.7%)

    Now remember, we are using per game numbers here, but we can almost certainly rule out Slovis and Fields who will only have played six games by the time the ballots are cast: enough games to warrant a playoff spot, maybe, but not a “Most Outstanding Player in College Football” trophy.

    What you can take away from Fields sitting on top of our rankings is that he was on-track for a Heisman-caliber season.

    Despite losing to unranked LSU in a three-pick game, Trask still leads in our odds thanks to his considerable lead in total TDs and TDs/game (4.2 for Trask to 2.8 for Jones). However, you have to feel like this conference championship game will decide things one way or another, with the top 2 QBs facing off head-to-head. They are, after all, separated by only 2.6 percentage points in our probabilities, and TDs aren’t everything, as we saw in the above plot.

    For those wondering about DeVonta Smith, Alabama wide receiver, he comes in at #6, followed by Trevor Lawrence at #7. While Smith is certainly having a great year, he may be hurt by the fact that our 16 years of model-training hadn’t seen a WR win the Heisman once. That, and the fact that he has two teammates performing at equally, if not more historic levels.

    Najee Harris is performing at Top-10 levels at his position in terms of total TDs, compared to other RBs in 2020. In terms of TDs per game, he is also in the top ten, though many others above him did better, none of which won the Heisman. However, only one of them was also on an undefeated team: Jaret Patterson of Buffalo (this year), who are in the MAC. So Najee has a chance, but it seems unlikely despite his outperformance of his peers. The less-prestigious Doak Walker Award (for the top back in College Football)? For sure.

    Again, we have to discount Fields despite his stellar performance so far in the air and on the ground. You can see neither of the top QBs in contention have much of a run game, so it will come down to TDs and win percentage. I think Florida need to win on Saturday to get Trask his Heisman. Otherwise, it’s going to ‘Bama (but I won’t say who at ‘Bama).

  • The (Wild) Dog Days are just beginning

    The time is now.

    Five games into the season Penn State is sitting comfortably ranked #10 with an undefeated record and potentially the best defense in the Big Ten. There is undeniably enough talent in the locker room to win a championship and the players and coaches are hungry for one. Nittany Lion fans are just as hungry if not more. Every little detail over the past five games has been observed under a microscope and scrutinized by the anticipatory fan base because they know, just as well as the team knows, what Penn State is able to accomplish this season.

    Penn State has had a dominant start to their season regardless of what you read on the internet. Above all else, through the first five games, Penn State has outscored opponents 235-37. They haven’t allowed two touchdowns to be scored by an opponent yet this season. Penn State is averaging (though be it a skewed) 47 points per game and it isn’t even wrong to feel more comfortable with the defense on the field. Sure, there are things to clean up after every game — that’s a given with every team ever… but this 2019 Penn State team is special.

    The next three games can tell a wide array of stories. There is a road trip to Iowa, a night-time white-out battle versus Michigan, and a visit to Michigan State. Penn State will be favored in all 3 of these games. They can realistically go 3-0 and surge to 8-0 on the season with Rutgers, Minnesota, and Indiana on the horizon. They can also realistically drop to 5-3 if they don’t step up to the competition and they lose all confidence in themselves for the remainder of the season.

    The next three games are against similar opponents, who match up to Penn State fairly well and forecast some close, fun contests ahead. Like Penn State – Iowa, Michigan, and MSU all have elite level defenses but with offenses that can be hit or miss. The competition has taken a major step up; no more are the days of Iowa and Maryland. To win these games, PSU will have to have excellent QB play, solid blocking, and for their defense to play as they have this whole season.

    To prepare for the upcoming Saturdays, and to anticipate emotions, here is how I think we will be feeling Oct 27th with every scenario:

    • 3-0: Penn State is a national championship contending team. They are top six in every poll and are going to be heavy favorites for three of the next four games. Going 11-1 is nearly guaranteed, and if they can pull off a win in Columbus, this young Penn State team will finish the regular season 12-0. At this point fans will be scoreboard watching OSU games and hoping that Michigan or Wisconsin can get a win against the Buckeyes so Penn State can be Big Ten East Champions again.
    • 2-1: Dropped a tough game during this stretch. Can still be a national championship contender if PSU can go to Columbus and pull off a win. Likely sitting top 12 in the nation right now. 10-2 is the safe regular season record prediction which would be really solid for such a young team. Even with no Big Ten Championship, Penn State is sitting in a great position to make a New Years Six bowl game. Exceeding most expectations for the year.
    • 1-2: Tough stretch of games, lost at least one road game against a tough opponent. More or less dropped from Big Ten Title contention and now the focus has shifted to winning out and hoping to steal a game from the Buckeyes. Likely ranked in the top 22. 9-3 is a safe season record but could easily go 8-4 if they drop both remaining road games to Minnesota and Ohio State. Winning the games that they are favored in will put them in good position to go to an upper level bowl (like the Citrus Bowl) and with some help from higher ranked teams, maybe a New Years Six. It’s scoreboard watching season.
    • 0-3: Yikes. Brutal three games have knocked Penn State out of the rankings for the first time since 2016. Penn State’s offense couldn’t find a way to score versus tough defenses and the season has been basically wasted. Best case scenario Penn State goes 8-4 but at this point the fan base is so defeated that they feel anything can happen. Will we win another game ever? James Franklin hot-seat/USC talks are up in the air, and fans are upset when AD Sandy Barbour announces that she will not be firing him. Let’s just go somewhere warm this December for the bowl game.

    The difference in optics and the overall excitement for this program for the 2019 season hangs in the balance of the next three games. The scary part is that Penn State has the talent and the inexperience to win-out or lose-out. These games will be a must watch and fans should celebrate every single win we can get because each one makes a humungous difference for this program not only this year, but in terms of momentum and recruiting for years down the line.

    There is a real shot at championship level football in Penn State’s horizon and everybody knows it. The only thing we can do is wear white, head to the games, and watch the Nittany Lions tear it up. We are.

    5-0.

  • The Caboose of the Boilermakers

    We are coming up on another homecoming week in Happy Valley this Saturday, October 5th. The Boilermakers of Purdue are limping their way to State College to face off against the Nittany Lions for the 19th time in their competitive history. Penn State holds a 14-3-1 all-time record against Purdue and are strong favorites to get that 15th win. As of Monday, Penn State is favored by four touchdowns – a large margin, that to be honest, is likely modest.

    The other day during a press conference, Purdue Head Coach Jeff Brohm told media that 6 of his players would not be playing in the game due to injury. These include: starting QB and promising athlete Elijah Sindelar, DT Lorenzo Neal, WR Jared Sparks, backup RBs Tario Fuller and Richie Worship, and most importantly, superstar in the making, all-purpose WR Rondale Moore.

    These injuries are bound to do massive damage to whatever offensive attack Purdue wants to implement against Penn State on Saturday. Most teams would not be able to survive their QB, 2 RBs, and a WR all out for the same game – but Purdue especially, who relies on Moore and Sindelar to execute (basically anything), does not look favorable this weekend.

    Elijah Sindelar, the senior QB, was having a great start to his season; in just three games:

    • he was completing 64.3% of his passes for about 1000 yards
    • he had 9 TDs and 3 INTs
    • he was able to run in another TD

    Their backup QB (who PSU will face Saturday) has not been nearly as good, only completing 51.4% of his passes for 3 TDs and 4 INTs, reminiscent of Kyle’s long-lost Heisman darkhorse D’Eriq King. Losing your starting QB is always going to be a tough hill to climb, but the absence of Rondale Moore is much more damning for Purdue. This kid is a superstar and if you don’t want to take my word for it just check out his highlight reel against Ohio State in 2018. His freshman year he caught 114 passes and put up nearly 1500 scrimmage yards with 14 TDs. This year there was more than plenty of Heisman buzz about him and led Purdue with 29 receptions and 390 scrimmage yards. These two playmakers are the heart and soul of this offense and without them Purdue will surely struggle to move the ball against a stout Penn State defense in Happy Valley in front of a homecoming crowd.

    I predict that Penn State will win this game without much controversy. Coming off of a strong momentum building game in Maryland, the #LawnBoyz will be ready to stomp the Boilermakers and their weird mascot.

    The betting line for this game is Penn State -28.0 and 55.5. For those who don’t know, that means the total points scored between both teams is meant to be 55-56 and Penn State is supposed to win by 28 points. Basically Vegas is predicting a 42-14 win for Penn State. I think the score will more resemble something along the lines of 49-3. The parlay (combined odds of multiple bets) of choosing Penn State to win by more than 28 and for the score to be less than 55.5 is +440. These odds essentially work out as such, if you bet $100 on said parlay and win – you will receive a total of $440. I put down some of my own money on this parlay because I really do think that Purdue will have an immensely hard time scoring points. Following my logic, this would allow PSU to win by more than 28 and not allow more than 55 points to score (Staturdays can not be held responsible for your gambling losses, however may be entitled to fair compensation for your profits. LLC, all rights reserved, yada yada.)

    Outside of the game lines themselves, there are a few things to watch for going into the 5th game of the season:

    • Any true-freshman who has played snaps in all 4 previous games will burn their Red Shirt if they do get playing time.
      • Players like LBs Lance Dixon and Brandon Smith, DBs Jaquan Brisker and Keaton Ellis, OL Caedan Wallace, and RBs Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have all played 4 games already in their true-freshman year. If they do play against Purdue, they will have officially burned their Red Shirt. It is safe to say that Noah Cain and Devyn Ford have earned playing time all season – but we will wait to see who else will be year-long contributors.
    • Micah Parsons coming back with a vengeance.
      • LBs and DLs had a feast on the Maryland offense last Saturday, but unfortunately due to a targeting penalty – Micah Parsons sat most of the game. I expect him to come back hungry against Purdue this week. Don’t be surprised if Micah puts up a multi-sack game or maybe even forces a fumble or two.
    • Clarity among the RB situation.
      • We are coming to the time now where either a hierarchy of RBs will emerge or a true rotation will be the situation going forward. Journey Brown has earned the starting role but really is more or less splitting time with the other backs. They all have proven their worth be it in the run or the passing game. After this game we will have a clearer look into the future of this teams RB situation heading into the more competitive part of the schedule.
    • Another career game for Sean Clifford?
      • Purdue’s defense has been gashed in the passing game so far this season, letting up 295 passing yards to Nevada, 420 to Vanderbilt, and 396 to Minnesota. If Purdue struggled to get pressure on Nevada’s Carson Strong and allowed him to nearly clip 300 passing yards and 3 TDs – what will Clifford be able to accomplish?

    All in all, these are some exciting times for Penn State. Fans should head to Beaver Stadium confident on Saturday and should hope for a nice comfortable win. There is a tough road game ahead, but we can only look at the game currently on the schedule. Let’s go win game number five. We Are.

    4-0.