Staturdays

College Football

  • 4 The First Time

    I am anxious. We spoke a while ago about how if Penn State could go 3-0 in the Iowa/UM/MSU stretch then they would be a national championship contender ranked somewhere in the top 6 of the nation. Well late last night, it was revealed that Penn State would be starting their CFP Committee rankings at #4. Number four. For the first time in committee history, Penn State is ranked in the coveted top 4 meaning that if the season ended today, they would be playing for a national title. This is huge. Just from an optics standpoint and in terms of national conversation, being ranked in the top 4 this late in the season, at any point, is a massive achievement. The work that PSU players and coaches have put in get recognized in a way that no other ranking system could and it really does prove that under Franklin, this program is up there with the nation’s elite. Seeing Sean Clifford in the ESPN top 4 graphic along with the top 3 QBs was enough to give me and most PSU fans alike goosebumps. The excitement has now reached another high and the stakes are now even higher.

    The only problem… the season isn’t over. Not even close. The last 3 game stretch was hard but this upcoming one may be even harder. Starting with a trip to face off against an undefeated Minnesota team, followed by the best Indiana team since the Franklin era began, and concluding with the game that has been circled on everyone’s calendar against the team from Columbus. I’m not going to go through all of the scenarios again because there are really only two: win all three or nothing. I know there are different circumstances that could sway what happens and PSU can find a way to sneak into a B1G championship with a loss, but there is no point in even thinking that way. The College Football Playoff Committee has just told Penn State that they believe they are ELITE and now it is Penn State’s turn to prove it. We must go into Minnesota with swagger and confidence and play our best football because we all know damn well they will be just as motivated as we are.

    There are plenty of people already underestimating the Minnesota team because of their weak strength of schedule, but we all need to remind ourselves that they are 8-0 just like us. They beat the opponents that they had ahead of them and we are no different. They have not faced a defense or offense like ours, but that doesn’t mean they are not up to the task. They have 3 wide receivers who are playing at an extremely high level and will be the toughest core that PSU has seen this far into the season. They have depth at running back and a big strong offensive line that is likely to be another unit that is either the best or close to the best that PSU has seen. And oh yeah – their QB isn’t too bad himself. Truth is, this offense is going to be the best that Penn State has faced this season. We cannot assume that we have more talent and that alone will win us this game, because it will not. A confident team is a dangerous team and Minnesota does not lack any.

    Good news? Penn State doesn’t either. I think we match up well with the Gophers. Their QB is non-mobile which should open up some opportunity for our rested defensive line who I expect to be hungry. They have RB depth but we stop the run really well. Their RBs and TEs don’t pose much of a threat in the passing game, so our DBs can focus their attention a little more straight-up than against an Iowa or Michigan offense. Minnesota has a tough senior filled defense with a lot of talent at DE and LB, but I expect Penn State’s offense to have a great game plan to find ways to get our playmakers the ball and keep the Minnesota defense guessing. And guess what, Noah Cain is listed as RB1 for the first time this season, finally answering Kyle’s question.

    This should be a great game and I expect Penn State to win. I expect the Nittany Lions to go into the game hungry and play their best football late in the already impressive season. I expect that nobody in that locker room is underestimating the talent that the Gophers bring and will understand that the opposition is just as hungry as them. I expect Penn State to be 9-0 and ranked #3 in the country next Tuesday night.

    This team has come a long way. Penn State Football was supposed to be handed the death sentence 8 years ago and they have been nothing but resilient and impressive since. Bill O’Brien and then James Franklin have done a tremendous job not only keeping the program afloat, but allowing it to thrive and continue to grow. What Franklin has done with this program is not talked about enough. In the past four years only Nick Saban (Bama) and Dabo Sweeny (Clemson) have more wins attached to their program than James. If bringing his team to #4 in the country for the first time in program history under the new playoff system WITHOUT Barkley and WITHOUT McSorely and WITHOUT the rest of the superstar talent that left between 2016-2018 (Gesicki, Godwin, to name a few) doesn’t show you that he is one of the best coaches in the country, then I don’t know what will. The talent keeps reloading and it is time to prove that We Are among the elite programs that are contending year in and year out. I couldn’t be more excited than I am right now to say that I support Penn State Football and I am ready for the game this Saturday. We Are 8-0. Lets get that 9th.

  • Saved by the Bell

    Last time we spoke there was an equal feeling of nervousness and excitement for the next three games. This anxiety existed because we knew the performance of Penn State in October shaped what would become of the entire season, the recruiting outlook for the next few seasons, and for the emergence of what could be the next great Penn State core under James Franklin. We went through the 4 different possible outcomes of a three-game stretch and saw the massive range of emotions that Penn State would be feeling whether they won-out, lost-out, or had something happen in-between.

    Two weeks later Penn State has defeated both of their opponents and improved to a 7-0 record. Michigan State is the only remaining foe on their schedule before a bye-week and the Nittany Lions currently sit #6 in nation. Things are good… really good. This young team could have easily lost one or both of these games but pulled through – not letting their youth be an excuse for mediocrity. There are certainly challenges ahead for PSU Football, possibly even greater than Iowa and Michigan, but there is something to be said about the confidence that gets instilled into a team with two wins against ranked opponents. Aside from LSU, Penn State is the only other team to accomplish such a feat this season so far. From a national perspective, Penn State is a real contender and a serious threat for the playoffs. From a more local perspective, things aren’t as positive; fair or not – there are things to be cleaned up immediately.

    Last week I planned to write about the officiating in the Iowa game, and how there needs to be accountability in that part of the game, but decided not to because it almost felt like it would be a detractor to how important that road win was to Penn State. I always struggle with pointing out criticism as a fan after a win because I feel that it makes me seem narcissistic. I mean, who am I to point out flaws – anything I’m seeing the team must also be seeing. This week though, I am going to step out of character for a little bit because I really am perplexed by the state of this Nittany Lion offense.

    I was at the game this week and the second half felt like a movie that I have watched again and again. Up by 14-21 points, Penn State could never seem to put the game away or even stay on the field. Through 5 possessions, after the 3rd touchdown in the second quarter, Penn State ran 16 plays total for what felt like less than five seconds of game play. Finally, Penn State scored again to bring the score to 28-14 only to immediately let Michigan back in the game with another touchdown of their own. From then, when we really should have tried to put the game on ice, Ricky Slade inexplicably comes into the game as RB and the Nittany Lions went three and out for the 6th time.

    Penn State won the game. They are 7-0. BUT …. I have to point out a few things here:

    • These offensive lulls need to end. Or at least be contained. I mean, Penn State doesn’t need to score every single drive, but they have to find a way to stay on the field. After going up 21-0, the next 5 drives went for
      • 3 plays / 4 yards / 1:02
      • 3 plays / 9 yards / 0:39
      • 4 plays / 12 yards / 2:11
      • 3 plays / 2 yards / 1:00
      • 3 plays / 3 yards / 1:27
    • For those who aren’t math folks that adds up to 16 plays / 30 yards / 6:19 / 0 points. Conversely, Michigan’s 5 drives in that timeframe: 33 plays / 227 yards / 14:46 / 14 points. For essentially an entire half of a game, Penn State stopped playing football. Sure, they didn’t give up the lead but they never let their defense get off of the field! It’s OK to not score every drive but you can’t just rely on your defense to play shut-out football against 4- and 5-star athletes for an entire game.
    • Ice the damn game! Penn State is up 28-21 with 8 minutes to go in the game and Ricky Slade comes in as the running back. There was an audible groan from the white-out crowd when they saw it wasn’t Noah Cain beside Clifford. Cain has proven to be, and coaches have said verbatim, that he is the closer – yet Ricky Slade was in the backfield this drive. And even more perplexing, the first play call was a slow developing pass to Slade five yards behind the line of scrimmage which dropped him for a loss of 4. This put an immense amount of pressure on Clifford to make a play on second down and a missed block (by of course Ricky Slade) drops him for a sack and a loss of another 5 yards. Now Penn State is faced with a 3rd and 19 that is impossible to convert. Less than 2 minutes later, Michigan has the ball again with 7 minutes to go. Michigan was a caught pass in the endzone away from tying the game. This CANNOT be the strategy anymore. We have seen this so many times and too many games have been lost in the 4th quarter because of the inability to run the clock. Noah Cain is the one-cut decisive back who will run the ball forward and get 3-7 yards almost every time. Cain is a luxury that PSU has but for some reason didn’t use last Saturday. That has to change.
    • Take some pressure off of Sean Clifford and his three targets. Not to harp on that one drive but I’m sorry, how can a slow developing pass to Ricky Slade 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage be the play call? You need yards, first downs, and plays that run the clock when you are up late in the game. So many first and second down plays went for short yardage and made third down that much harder for Sean Clifford. There needs to be a little more belief that PSU’s RBs can beat the opposing defense. The four RBs got 13 carries total and that is including Noah Cain’s two at the very end of the game. This combined with the fact that the WR-X position (Daniel George and Justin Shorter) had zero receptions or targets this game. Dotson had one catch … Freiermuth three. More or less there is an entire 11th position on the field that is used as nothing but a decoy this entire season and that MUST change. 52% of the receptions, 60% of the yards, and 79% of the TD catches have been by Hamler, Dotson, or Freiermuth. There will be a time when we are going to need someone else to make a catch or run the ball. This coaching staff needs to find confidence in more pass catchers and find a way to take some pressure off of the offensive stars.

    Penn State won the game. They are 7-0. And here is the best news – if my dumbass is seeing these issues so is the coaching staff. I’m confident that Penn State can clean up some of these offensive woes before heading into MSU to close out this tough October stretch. The problem though is that even after the bye-week the schedule doesn’t get much easier; Minnesota will likely be undefeated, Indiana’s looked the best they’ve looked in a long time, and of course that team from Columbus follows right after. The team and fans alike can only focus on the game ahead and that will be a tough matchup against The Spartans. If Penn State can find more receivers, play smarter with a lead, and allow their RBs to shine – I can confidently say that they will win that game and improve to 8-0 on the year. We Are.

    7-0

  • The (Wild) Dog Days are just beginning

    The time is now.

    Five games into the season Penn State is sitting comfortably ranked #10 with an undefeated record and potentially the best defense in the Big Ten. There is undeniably enough talent in the locker room to win a championship and the players and coaches are hungry for one. Nittany Lion fans are just as hungry if not more. Every little detail over the past five games has been observed under a microscope and scrutinized by the anticipatory fan base because they know, just as well as the team knows, what Penn State is able to accomplish this season.

    Penn State has had a dominant start to their season regardless of what you read on the internet. Above all else, through the first five games, Penn State has outscored opponents 235-37. They haven’t allowed two touchdowns to be scored by an opponent yet this season. Penn State is averaging (though be it a skewed) 47 points per game and it isn’t even wrong to feel more comfortable with the defense on the field. Sure, there are things to clean up after every game — that’s a given with every team ever… but this 2019 Penn State team is special.

    The next three games can tell a wide array of stories. There is a road trip to Iowa, a night-time white-out battle versus Michigan, and a visit to Michigan State. Penn State will be favored in all 3 of these games. They can realistically go 3-0 and surge to 8-0 on the season with Rutgers, Minnesota, and Indiana on the horizon. They can also realistically drop to 5-3 if they don’t step up to the competition and they lose all confidence in themselves for the remainder of the season.

    The next three games are against similar opponents, who match up to Penn State fairly well and forecast some close, fun contests ahead. Like Penn State – Iowa, Michigan, and MSU all have elite level defenses but with offenses that can be hit or miss. The competition has taken a major step up; no more are the days of Iowa and Maryland. To win these games, PSU will have to have excellent QB play, solid blocking, and for their defense to play as they have this whole season.

    To prepare for the upcoming Saturdays, and to anticipate emotions, here is how I think we will be feeling Oct 27th with every scenario:

    • 3-0: Penn State is a national championship contending team. They are top six in every poll and are going to be heavy favorites for three of the next four games. Going 11-1 is nearly guaranteed, and if they can pull off a win in Columbus, this young Penn State team will finish the regular season 12-0. At this point fans will be scoreboard watching OSU games and hoping that Michigan or Wisconsin can get a win against the Buckeyes so Penn State can be Big Ten East Champions again.
    • 2-1: Dropped a tough game during this stretch. Can still be a national championship contender if PSU can go to Columbus and pull off a win. Likely sitting top 12 in the nation right now. 10-2 is the safe regular season record prediction which would be really solid for such a young team. Even with no Big Ten Championship, Penn State is sitting in a great position to make a New Years Six bowl game. Exceeding most expectations for the year.
    • 1-2: Tough stretch of games, lost at least one road game against a tough opponent. More or less dropped from Big Ten Title contention and now the focus has shifted to winning out and hoping to steal a game from the Buckeyes. Likely ranked in the top 22. 9-3 is a safe season record but could easily go 8-4 if they drop both remaining road games to Minnesota and Ohio State. Winning the games that they are favored in will put them in good position to go to an upper level bowl (like the Citrus Bowl) and with some help from higher ranked teams, maybe a New Years Six. It’s scoreboard watching season.
    • 0-3: Yikes. Brutal three games have knocked Penn State out of the rankings for the first time since 2016. Penn State’s offense couldn’t find a way to score versus tough defenses and the season has been basically wasted. Best case scenario Penn State goes 8-4 but at this point the fan base is so defeated that they feel anything can happen. Will we win another game ever? James Franklin hot-seat/USC talks are up in the air, and fans are upset when AD Sandy Barbour announces that she will not be firing him. Let’s just go somewhere warm this December for the bowl game.

    The difference in optics and the overall excitement for this program for the 2019 season hangs in the balance of the next three games. The scary part is that Penn State has the talent and the inexperience to win-out or lose-out. These games will be a must watch and fans should celebrate every single win we can get because each one makes a humungous difference for this program not only this year, but in terms of momentum and recruiting for years down the line.

    There is a real shot at championship level football in Penn State’s horizon and everybody knows it. The only thing we can do is wear white, head to the games, and watch the Nittany Lions tear it up. We are.

    5-0.