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Week 9 Elo Win Probabilities
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In-Depth: Predicting Spreads
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Last week we talked at length about Moneylines. This week we’re talking spreads, a topic I tend to avoid. Reason: it’s a lot easier to predict which team is going to win, especially in college football—as … Continue reading In-Depth: Predicting Spreads
Week 8 Elo Win Probabilities
ACCBig TenBig-12Pac-12SEC AmericanConference USAIndependentsMACMountain WestSun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
Week 8 Elo Rankings
Another tumultuous week of college football has shaken up the rankings once again. The top 4 stayed put, but some noticeable slides were Texas from 19th to 27th, Penn State being overtaken (who were on a bye week), and four-spot drops each from Iowa and Florida. Teams making upward moves included Michigan State, Oklahoma State, … Continue reading Week 8 Elo Rankings
Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Let’s talk moneylines and expected value, something that's essential to understand if you want to stand a chance at profiting off sports betting in the long run. Before I go into too much … Continue reading Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines
Week 7 Elo Rankings
After a wild Week 6 that saw the #1 team drop to unranked Texas A&M, you'd expect a massive shakeup in the Elo ratings. Or at least you'd think. In reality, things haven't moved all that much. While A&M were unranked in the AP Poll, Elo ratings actually put them at 13th last week. This … Continue reading Week 7 Elo Rankings
Week 7 Elo Win Probabilities
ACCBig TenBig-12Pac-12SEC AmericanConference USAIndependentsMACMountain WestSun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
Week 6 Elo Win Probabilities
ACCBig TenBig-12Pac-12SEC AmericanConference USAIndependentsMACMountain WestSun Belt ACC Big Ten Big-12 Pac-12 SEC American Conference USA Independents MAC Mountain West Sun Belt
Week 6 Elo Rankings
It's Week 6 of the college football season. Here are our latest rankings using our Elo rating system. Florida lost in a shocker to Kentucky, dampening the impact of their impressive performance against Alabama. Kentucky are now quietly 5-0. Notre Dame also dropped one to Cincinnati, elevating Cincy to 11th and dropping the Irish down … Continue reading Week 6 Elo Rankings
A Chance to Flip the Script
It is revenge time for the fourth ranked Nittany Lions as they are slated to play the Indiana Hoosiers under the lights at Beaver Stadium this Saturday. Last season kicked off with one of the most heartbreaking and season disrupting “losses” when Indiana defeated Penn State by one point in overtime on a questionable two-point … Continue reading A Chance to Flip the Script
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