This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Last week we talked at length about Moneylines. This week we’re talking spreads, a topic I tend to avoid. Reason: it’s a lot easier to predict which team is going to win, especially in college football—as … Continue reading In-Depth: Predicting Spreads
Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines
This is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Staturdays newsletter. Subscribe to get weekly content like this in your inbox. Let’s talk moneylines and expected value, something that's essential to understand if you want to stand a chance at profiting off sports betting in the long run. Before I go into too much … Continue reading Calculating Expected Value Using Moneylines
Bowl Game Win Probabilities
Win probabilities for remaining bowl games, including the CFB Playoff Semifinal matchups and the rest of the New Year's Six bowl games. Home-field advantage adjustments were removed for these games. Elo win probabilities for all the upcoming bowl games.
Week 16 Win Probabilities
It's conference championship week. The most closely contested of the conference championship games is projected to be the Notre Dame-Clemson game for the ACC title. Let's check out who Elo likes in all this week's matchups. Please note that Washington was replaced with Oregon for the Pac-12 championship. USC's win probability for that game is … Continue reading Week 16 Win Probabilities
Week 15 Win Probabilities
We're in the final stretch. The regular season winds down this weekend and then it's conference championship time!
Week 13 Win Probabilities
We've got a long weekend of College Football ahead of us. Here's how Elo feels about these matchups as we get deeper into this crazy 2020 season.
Week 12 Win Probabilities
Get ready for the weekend and all the biggest matchups by reviewing Elo's win probabilities for Week 12 of the college football season. Week 12 college football Elo win probabilities
Week 10 Win Probabilities
Below are the win probabilities for Week 10. We've got a full slate of games for all Power-5 conferences as the Pac-12 returns, and we have several discrepancies between Elo and Vegas, particularly in the Pac-12 as things are just starting up. And Elo continues to like Navy for some reason. Hard pass on that … Continue reading Week 10 Win Probabilities
The Caboose of the Boilermakers
What can we expect from an injury ridden Purdue team?
No Need to Panic Yet: Volume One
No need to panic just yet. PSU v Buffalo was actually great for Penn State.