Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go

In almost every game, announcers find a point to mention each team’s third down conversion rate. Sometimes it’s their conversion rate for that game only, and sometimes it’s their conversion rate for the whole season and a ranking of how that compares to other teams. In these situations, I find the information lacking: they say … Continue reading Comparing Third Down Conversion Rate by Distance to Go

Predicting the Heisman Winner After Kyle Trask’s 3-Interception Loss

Kyle Trask was a "shoe"-in for Heisman. Now the shoe is on the other foot (Mac Jones's). The name Kyle had gotten a bad rap in the last year. People think that all we do is drink Monsters and pop wheelies on our ATVs with our cousins at the campground. Kyle Trask was supposed to … Continue reading Predicting the Heisman Winner After Kyle Trask’s 3-Interception Loss

Week 16 Elo Rankings

Well folks, after 15 weeks that felt like 30 weeks, we finally made it. Conference Championship week is here, and all five Power-5 conferences are hosting games. We'll have those win probabilities up later this week, but for now, let's see how the Elo rankings look after the regular season. For more CFB Playoff analysis, … Continue reading Week 16 Elo Rankings

Week 15 Elo Rankings

After 14 weeks of college football, Elo has the same top 4 as the College Football Playoff Committee (in a slightly different order). After that, things look a bit different, notably with LSU at 5, who fell off significantly from last year's National Championship team. With shortened seasons in some conferences, prior-year performance is still … Continue reading Week 15 Elo Rankings

CFB Mythbusters: Do bye weeks help or hurt your team?

This week we’re talking about bye weeks. We could all use a break around this time of year, and even more so in 2020. They help you get refreshed, get your mind right, and get back out there better than before. Or do they? In the office, taking a break can mean playing catch-up later. … Continue reading CFB Mythbusters: Do bye weeks help or hurt your team?

Takeaways From Charting the Penn State–Iowa Game

Penn State is now 0-5 and hasn't really been in what's felt like a close game since the opener at Indiana. Luckily, I found a way to (kind of) distract myself, charting each and every pass of this weekend's game using Jared Lee's fantastic Shiny app and code. Please check out his account and give … Continue reading Takeaways From Charting the Penn State–Iowa Game

Week 13 Elo Rankings

The unpredictableness that has been 2020 continued this past weekend, with a slew of cancellations, along with some slightly surprising results. Rutgers brought Michigan to triple-overtime but came up just short, while Northwestern went to 5-0 and 20th in our Elo rankings after defensive standoff where they got the better of Wisconsin. Indiana also put … Continue reading Week 13 Elo Rankings